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New record high for employment. Australian Unemployment is down 1.2% to 10.4%

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 376,118 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2014 and includes 4,914 to-face interviews in April 2014.

In April 2014 an estimated 1.308 million Australians (10.4% of the workforce) were unemployed. April unemployment is down a large 157,000 (1.2%) from last month however compared to the same time last year unemployment is up 154,000 (1.1%).

The Australian workforce* was 12,629,000 (up 34,000) comprising 7,568,000 full-time workers (up 204,000); 3,753,000 part-time workers (down 13,000); and 1,308,000 looking for work (down 157,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. The Roy Morgan employment and unemployment figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,079,000 Australians (8.5% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 134,000 more than a month ago (up 1%), but virtually unchanged from a year ago (down 20,000 since April 2013).

In April in total an estimated 2.387 million Australians (18.9% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is down 23,000 (down 0.2%) from March but higher than 12 months ago in April 2013 (up 133,000, or 0.8% from 2.254 million).

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.4% is a substantial 4.6% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for March 2014 (5.8%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr–Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

April 2014

2,387

18.9

1,308

10.4

628

680

1,079

8.5

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“In April Australian unemployment has fallen significantly for a second straight month (down 157,000) to 1.308 million Australians (10.4%, down 1.2%). The fall in unemployment was not unexpected – Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen in ten years out of the last fourteen in April. However, Australian under-employment rose to 1,079,000 (up 134,000) Australians (8.5%, up 1.0%) – now a total of 2.39 million (18.9%) Australians are unemployed or under-employed.

“Driving the fall in unemployment was a strong increase in full-time employment – up 204,000 to 7,568,000 while part-time employment was slightly down (3,753,000, down 13,000). Overall this means an increase in employment to 11,321,000 (up 191,000) – a new record high for employment.

“Despite the expected fall in April, unemployment is now significantly higher than a year ago in April 2013 – up 154,000 over the past 12 months. This rise has mainly been driven by an increase in people looking for full-time work (now 628,000, up 120,000 since April 2013) while an additional 34,000 Australians are now looking for part-time work (680,000) than twelve months ago.

“Treasurer Joe Hockey has signalled that his first Federal Budget – to be delivered in two weeks – will be a tough one that ‘spreads the pain’ of reducing Australia’s Budget deficit across the community. This week we have learned the Government is considering introducing a so-called ‘Deficit levy’ to be paid by all Australians earning over $80,000 per year until the Budget returns to surplus, which may be four or more years away.

“The best way for the Government to reduce the Budget deficit is clearly to stimulate the Australian economy and reduce the high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.39 million Australians). To do this the Abbott Government’s top priority must be to immediately undertake significant labour market reforms to re-invigorate the Australian economy and provide real hope for unemployed and under-employed Australians.

“If urgent reforms to increase workplace productivity are not undertaken, there will be further job losses in the future – just this week Australia’s second biggest telecommunications company Optus announced it was cutting a further 350 jobs after already retrenching 1,500 employees over the past two years. Failure to implement labour productivity reforms will undermine confidence in the economy and will ultimately be a major factor in the Abbott Government losing the next Federal Election.”

 

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 376,118 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2014 and includes 4,914 to-face interviews in April 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - April 2014 - 10.4%

Roy Morgan Unemployment - April 2014

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment - April 2014


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.