John Key struggled to coax The Worm above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor, the original Worm.
John Key struggled to coax The Worm
above the line in Thursday’s Leaders Debate, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor
, the original Worm
The Worm appeared live on the Scoop website during the debate, making it clear that the 100 New Zealanders reacting via their smartphones could feel John Key’s uncertainty and apparent discomfort.
When the Reactor graphs are viewed by political persuasion (‘who would you like to win, National or Labour?) the split is usually entirely predictable - almost regardless of what the leaders are actually saying. The graph lines below (each leader’s response to the questions of foreign ownership of sensitive land) are typical.
The really telling moments in these debates are when a speakers manages to drag those of the opposite political persuasion over the all-important centre line - or at least stop them heading entirely in the opposite direction.
John Key really only managed to achieve this once where as David Cunliffe seemed to be constantly gaining at least some traction with National voters.
The only time when the National leader managed the same feat was when he was responding to the question ‘What is the most surprising political view you hold’.
Key: “Ah ... I think for a lot of people that would be my support of gay marriage because I come from the centre-right of politics ...”
By contrast, the Labour leader seemed to be in his element, relaxed and confident, and seeming more personable that your average politician.
Early in the debate, Cunliffe was earning brownie points with National voters by giving credit to his opponent for sacrificing his business career for political life. As the Reactor graph below shows, he managed to hold National voters just under the middle (50%) line.
Cunliffe: “I really appreciate the fact that John gave up a very lucrative career to come into Public Service and I think New Zealanders appreciate that ...”
Interestingly, Cunliffe’s stand against nationalisation of key assets and his pledge to bring the budget back to surplus seems to be resonating more positively with National voters than it did with Labour supporters.
Cunliffe: “There is not the fiscal headroom to buy back all the assets ... we will keep the books in the black.”
The blue Worm heading for the centre line in the Reactor graph below is a fairly good indication that Labour’s ‘Healthy Homes Guarantee’ is popular with National as well as Labour supporters.
Cunliffe: “Rental properties crucial. That’s why we’re bringing in our Healthy Homes Guarantee to ensure that every family living in a renter is in a warm, dry, healthy home.”
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