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ALP surges after Abbott announces new petrol tax and following death of Labor icon Gough Whitlam

Finding No. 5905 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of October 25/26 & November 1/2, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

In early November ALP support rose to 54.5% (up 2.5%) and now clearly leads the L-NP 45.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the L-NP was down 1% to 38.5% while ALP support rose 2% to 37.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens were at 12.5% (up 0.5%) – the highest since April 2014, Palmer United Party (PUP) 3% (down 0.5%) – the lowest since January 2014, while Independents/ Others were down 1% to 8.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (5.5%) followed by South Australia 5%. Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Western Australia (3%), Victoria (2.5%), Tasmania (2.5%) and lowest of all in New South Wales (1.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is highest for the ALP amongst women: ALP (59%, up 5.5%) cf. L-NP (41%, down 5.5%). However, support for the major parties is evenly split amongst men with the L-NP up slightly (50%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (50%, down 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%; 50-64yr olds are close L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%; and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in four Australian States. South Australia: ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; Victoria: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; Tasmania: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; New South Wales: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. However the L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and Queensland: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 99.5pts this week (up 4pts over the past fortnight). Now 40% (down 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 39.5% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* also shows the ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5 %) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (54.5%, up 2.5%) has increased its lead over the L-NP (45.5%, down 2.5%) following Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s decision last week to increase the fuel excise on petrol from 38.1c per litre to 38.6c per litre – starting next week (Monday November 10).

“The Abbott Government’s decision to impose the tax increase has drawn the ire of Victorian Premier Denis Napthine, who faces his first election as Premier in only four weeks’ time. Analysing this week’s results by Federal voting intention in Victoria shows the ALP (60.5%, up 5.5% in a fortnight) cf. L-NP (39.5%, down 5.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. These results are supported by the recent Morgan Poll on Victorian Voting Intention which showed the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). Both results indicate Napthine faces an uphill battle to retain Government.

“In addition to next week’s tax increase, the last fortnight saw the death of former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam (Prime Minister 1972-75). Whitlam has been an iconic figure for the Labor Party and many regard him as Labor’s first Prime Minister of modern times.

“Although there was a great deal of media tributes to Whitlam following his death, former Treasury Secretary John Stone puts the 'other side' with his concerns regarding the ‘economic management’ of the Whitlam Government in an article for the AFR: Economic Insanity by John Stone (Thursday October 23, 2014).

“The ALP’ lead may be short-lived as next week Prime Minister Tony Abbott should get good media coverage as he welcomes the largest assortment of world leaders ever to assemble on Australian shores when the G-20 convenes in Brisbane. The gathering of the world’s 20 most important leaders will provide Abbott with a chance to press Russian President Vladimir Putin over answers in regards to the downed airliner MH17, and also for Abbott to demonstrate his credentials on foreign policy as he welcomes the leaders of the world’s largest economies.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 5905 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of October 25/26 & November 1/2, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - November 3, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0