The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in November was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ’S Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index increased 2pts to 157.1 in November, the highest level this year.
- The improvement in the Consumer Confidence index was broad-based. The sub-index for current financial situation rose 1.6pts in November, and the confidence of economic conditions next year increased 2.0pts. Meanwhile, the sub-index for economic conditions next year went up by 1.8pts, while the long-term economic conditions sub-index increased 3.9pts, possibly attributing to the recent property market stabilisation, which helps lift Chinese consumers' confidence.
- By geography, consumer sentiments were equally split, with consumer confidence rising in 7 cities while falling in the other 7. Notably, consumer confidence in Shanghai and Guangzhou rose 6.4pts and 2.7pts respectively. Consumer confidence in Beijing declined 0.8pt.
- Inflation expectation declined for the fifth consecutive month to 4.08%, suggesting a disinflation expectation is forming.
“The November survey results suggest that consumer sentiments bode well for a steady rebound of Q4 GDP growth. We have seen positive signals in housing and stock market. The record sales figure on ‘Singles Day’ also reflects great opportunities in China’s e-commerce market.
"The housing transactions have started to rebound since late September as the government gradually relaxed the ‘purchase limit policy’ in the property market. In our view, China will intensify the effort to stabilise the housing market. China’s stock market also outperformed in the past few months due to expectations of ‘reform dividends’ and the official launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect program.
"In the meantime, China’s online sales reached another record high on ‘Singles Day’ (11 November) this year, suggesting that Chinese household consumption has great potential to increase over time. The sales on Alibaba’s online shopping platform hit a new record of RMB57bn during the 24 hour shopping marathon on the ‘Singles Day’. 278m packages have been delivered - one for every five people in China.
Please refer to Page 4 for a further discussion on China’s mobile online shopping.
"In addition, the continuous decline in inflation expectation suggests that China has entered a rapid dis-inflation process, indicating that the easing bias in China’s monetary policy will continue over the next year. ”
Note: ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment survey compliments the surveys in Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, China and etc. More consumer confidence surveys for other Asia-Pacific economies will be forthcoming.
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2014.
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