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G20 and APEC Summits do nothing to help Abbott or the Liberal Party

Finding No. 5935 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of November 8/9 & 15/16, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

In mid-November ALP support rose to 55.5% (up 1%) and now clearly leads the L-NP 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the L-NP was down 0.5% to 38% while ALP support rose 1% to 38.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2.5% (down 0.5%) – the lowest recorded since prior to the Federal Election last year, while Independents/ Others were up 0.5% to 9%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (4.5%) followed by Tasmania (3%), South Australia 2%, Western Australia (2%), New South Wales (2%) and lowest in Victoria (1.5%) – which faces a State Election next week (Saturday November 29, 2014).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is far higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (57.5%, down 1.5%) cf. L-NP (42.5%, up 1.5%). However, support is now up amongst men for the ALP (53%, up 3%) compared to the L-NP (47%, down 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 66% cf. L-NP 34%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; 50-64yr olds are closer ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%; and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; New South Wales: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%; South Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%; Queensland: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 98pts this week (down 1.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 42.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 40.5% (up 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“A week of international Summits, starting with the APEC Summit in Beijing and culminating with the Brisbane G20 Summit over the weekend failed to provide a boost to either Prime Minister Tony Abbott or the Liberal Party with the ALP (55.5%, up 1%) increasing its lead over the L-NP (44.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“Abbott was widely criticised at the G20 Summit over the weekend for referring to domestic legislative difficulties in his opening remarks to foreign leaders which seemed to detract from the stated goal of the G20 Summit to provide a boost to world growth. There was also significant media coverage in the last few days about last week’s climate change deal between the United States and China which put the spotlight on the Abbott Government’s different approach to dealing with the issue.

“Despite the lack of a boost for the Liberals after a week of international summits for Abbott, the Government was today able to announce Australia has signed a free-trade deal with China – Australia’s largest export market – which should provide a significant boost to the Australian economy over the next few years. The free-trade agreement with China is even more important considering Australia’s second largest export market – Japan – has today officially entered its third recession in the last three years.

“While the G20’s commitment to increase infrastructure spending and crack down on international tax avoidance will in the long-term help reduce unemployment and the Government budget deficit only significant IR reform can have an immediate impact on Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (Roy Morgan real October unemployment (1.09 million – 9.1%) and under-employment (1.12 million – 9.3%). Unfortunately, the Abbott Government seems disinterested in stopping tax avoidance due to the cash economy and pursuing ‘real’ IR reform so the 2.21 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed can quickly find work.

“A week of turmoil for Australia’s newest political party – the Palmer United Party (PUP) – has seen PUP’s vote drop to 2.5% (down 0.5%) – the lowest share of the vote for PUP since before last year’s Federal Election. Even more worryingly for PUP, is that its share of the vote is lowest in Victoria (1.5%) – which contests a State Election next week. Although this is a Federal Poll, today’s poor result in Victoria shows it is unlikely PUP will be able to win any Upper House seats at the Victorian State Election on Saturday week (November 29, 2014).”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5935 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of November 8/9 & 15/16, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - November 17, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0