The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2014.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence fell to 116.6 (down 5.3pts m/m) in November – its lowest since June 2014. Nonetheless, Consumer Confidence is still well above the 2014 average of 109.7. Confidence fell across four of the five indicators although the steepest falls were related to conditions for both personal financial situations and the broader Thai economy over the next year.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances now, 26% (down 5ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago compared to 39% (up 2ppts) who said they are ‘worse off’ financially.
- In addition, 47% (down 7ppts) of respondents said they expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time (the lowest for this indicator since April 2014) compared to 12% (down 2ppts) who expect their families will be ‘worse off’ financially.
- Thinking of economic conditions in Thailand going forward, 57% (down 5ppts) expect Thailand will have ‘good times’ economically over the next twelve months (the lowest for this indicator since May 2014) compared to 21% (up 3ppts) who expect ‘bad times’ economically (the highest for this indicator since May 2014).
- Over the longer-term, a large majority of 71% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect Thailand will have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years and only 6% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Only 23% (down 2ppts) of respondents said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to an increasing majority of 63% (up 5ppts) who said now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
"The transition to a robust and broad-based recovery that would prompt a steep exit profile from Thailand’s near recession conditions was never going to be easy. Our ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index provides ample evidence of that.
"The slide in the November reading of consumer confidence reinforced our expectations that Thailand’s recovery appears to be turning more U-shaped rather than V-shaped and lends support to our recent downward revision of 2014 full year growth to 0.9% (prev: 1.3%) and 2015 growth to 4.2% (prev: 4.8%). Still, though meagre, the sequential momentum of the economy is improving, a dynamic we expect to accelerate when fiscal spending gains traction.
"Looking ahead, the timeliness of fiscal spending will be key in stimulating the economy and consequently dictate the trajectory of economic recovery. Given Thailand’s active use of fiscal policy, our proprietary ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence index will provide an accurate real-time read on the extent of the boost that fiscal stimulus has provided to the economy.”
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Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thai Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2014.
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