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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rises in November

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,699 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2014.
HIGHLIGHTS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence rose to 161.4 (up 3.3pts) in November – now 7.1pts higher than it was a year ago in November 2013 (154.3) and well above the 2014 average of 156.6. The main driver of this month’s increase was greater confidence in Indonesia’s economy over the next 12 months.

  • In terms of personal finances now, 50% (up 3%) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago (an all-time record high for this indicator) compared to just 9% (up 1%) who said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

  • Also, 75% (up 1%) of Indonesians expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (an all-time record high for this indicator) compared to only 3% (up 1%) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

  • In terms of the Indonesian economy, 88% (up 5%) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (an all-time record high for this indicator) and only 11% (down 5%) said Indonesia will have ‘bad times’ financially (an all-time record low for this indicator).

  • In addition, 94% (up 2%) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years compared to only 6% (down 1%) who expect ‘bad times’ economically.

  • Finally, 63% (up 1%) of Indonesians said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 34% (unchanged) who said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:

“No pain, no gain!

"Well if it’s one thing that we can say about Indonesian consumers, they are certainly forward-looking and taking in their stride developments that we intuitively suspected would have dampened sentiment. Over November, fuel prices were hiked and Bank Indonesia responded to this with a symbolic, but nonetheless very real rate hike. Despite this, a number of sub-components of our consumer confidence index struck new record high levels over the month.

"A record high number of Indonesians (50%) now believe that they are better off now than they were a year ago. A further record number of Indonesians (88%) now believe that Indonesia will have good times financially over the next 12 months. And finally, a stunning 94% of Indonesians expect Indonesia to have good times economically over the next five years.

"Putting aside extreme altruism as a possible explanation, the size of the fuel price increase and the eradication of the gap between domestic and international prices is perhaps giving Indonesians a sense of confidence that the fuel subsidy issue has now finally been resolved. Further details of the important social and public works expenditure planned with the freed-up money from subsidy reforms also became clearer over the month. Indonesians continue to respond favourably to all that Jokowi says and does.”


ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index - November 2014 - 161,4

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index - November 2014 - 161.4

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2014.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0