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Australian employment at record high in November as both part-time and full-time employment increase strongly

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 409,001 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2014 and includes 5,245 face-to-face interviews in November 2014.

In November 2014 Roy Morgan Unemployment is 10.0%:

  • 12,657,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 203,000 since November 2013);
  • 11,396,000 Australians are employed (up 210,000 since November 2013 and a new record high);
  • 1,260,000 Australians are looking for work (10.0% of the workforce, down 8,000 since November 2013);
  • 7,554,000 Australians are employed full-time (up 84,000 since November 2013);
  • 3,843,000 Australians are employed part-time (up 127,000 since November 2013);
  • 1,231,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours – 9.7%, up 95,000 since November 2013).
  • 2,491,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed (19.7% of the workforce, up 87,000 since November 2013);
  • After this month’s rise the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.0% is now a substantial 3.8% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for October 2014 (6.2%).

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Jul-Sep 2014

2,237

18.2

1,179

9.6

594

585

1,058

8.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

April 2014

2,387

18.9

1,308

10.4

628

680

1,079

8.5

April 2014**

2,374

19.0

1,299

10.4

629

670

1,074

8.6

May 2014

2,179

17.8

1,186

9.7

603

583

993

8.1

June 2014

2,514

20.1

1,326

10.6

684

642

1,188

9.5

July 2014

2,344

18.9

1,265

10.2

654

611

1,079

8.7

August 2014

2,144

17.6

1,064

8.7

516

548

1,080

8.8

September 2014

2,223

18.2

1,208

9.9

613

595

1,015

8.3

October 2014

2,207

18.4

1,090

9.1

461

629

1,117

9.3

November 2014

2,491

19.7

1,260

10.0

564

696

1,231

9.7

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australia’s real unemployment in November was 10.0% – 1.26 million (down 8,000 from a year ago, November 2013) and an additional 1.231 million Australians (up 95,000) were under-employed – a new record high. This is a total of 2.491 million Australians (up 87,000) either unemployed or under-employed – marking three years (36 months) of more than 2 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“Although these figures are worrying, the Australian economy is generating jobs – just not enough new jobs to cope with a rising population. Australian employment rose to a record 11,396,000 in November – up 210,000 over the past twelve months. The increase in employment has been driven by strong increases in both part-time employment to 3,843,000 (up 127,000 from a year ago) and full-time employment to 7,554,000 (up 84,000 from a year ago).

November is traditionally a month in which young people finishing up at school and University either look for full-time work or seek part-time employment over the Summer months. Both the Australian workforce and total Australian employment have increased in five out of the last six years since the Global Financial Crisis (2008-09).

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment figures underline the increasingly casualised nature of the Australian workforce with under two-thirds of employed Australians now employed full-time (66.3%, down 0.5% from a year ago) compared to the increasing proportion of employed Australians now employed part-time (33.7%, up 0.5% from a year ago).

“The overall picture of the Australian labour market shows an economy with a large amount of under-utilised labour – now 2.49 million Australians (19.7%) are either unemployed or under-employed. November marks three straight years more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work and the 30th straight month more than 1 million Australians have been unemployed – both these figures should force the Abbott Government to look seriously at industrial relations reform.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 409,001 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2014 and includes 5,245 face-to-face interviews in November 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - December 2014 - 10.0%

Roy Morgan Unemployment - September Quarter 2014 - 9.6%

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment - December 2014 - 19.7%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.