The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in December was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index moderated by 1.6pts to 155.5 in December, after a record high of 157.1 in November. The index has remained above the average level of 151.7 in the first 11 months, and also reached the second highest level this year.
- In December, in terms of personal finances, 54% (up 1ppt from November) of respondents say that their families are ‘better off’ financially compared with the same time last year. Only 5% (up 1ppt) say that they are ‘worse off’. For the outlook for the financial condition next year, 56% (unchanged) of respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially, while 3% (down 1ppt) expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- For economic conditions, 74% (down 4ppts) expect that China will have ‘good times’ next year, compared with 6% (up 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, sentiments for longer-term economic performance deteriorated somewhat, as 69% (down 5ppts) of respondents expect that China will have ‘good times’ over longer horizon and 5% (up 1ppt) say there will be ‘bad times’.
- By geography, ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence rose in 9 cities while falling in the other 5. Consumer confidence in Shanghai and Guangzhou fell 9.6pts and 3.4pts respectively. In contrast, consumer confidence in Beijing rose 4.9pts.
- Inflation expectation inched up marginally to 4.14%, remaining below the average level of 4.40% in the first 11 months this year. This is the first month of increase after falling for five consecutive months.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
“A strong performance of the index in December shows that consumer sentiment remained buoyed towards the end of the year, as the monetary policy has clearly eased and the stock market continued to rally.
"However, the long-term economic outlook softened in December, as Chinese economy enters a ‘new normal’, as described by the President Xi Jinping. We also believe that Chinese authorities will likely tolerate a slower growth rate in the coming years, under the framework of ‘new normal’ economy and will strike a balance among social, environmental, and economic targets. During the transition period, China’s growth is bound to slow.
"Meanwhile, inflation expectation rebounded slightly but remained below trend. This suggests that the on-going dis-inflationary process will persist. We believe that China will need to further relax monetary policy and forecast that the PBoC will lower the benchmark deposit rate by 25bps and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 150bps next year.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2014.
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