Australian real unemployment down to 10.4% (1.31 million) but under-employment increases to 9.0% (1.14 million)

• 12,627,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 145,000 since April 2014), about the same as over the past three months and 11,318,000 Australians are employed (up 135,000 since April 2014);
• 7,562,000 Australians are employed full-time (up 82,000 since April 2014);
• 3,756,000 Australians are employed part-time (up 53,000 since April 2014);
• 1,309,000 Australians are looking for work (10.4% of the workforce – unchanged from a year ago), up only 9,000 since April 2014;
• 1,137,000 Australians are under-employed, working part-time and looking for more hours – (9.0% of the workforce), up 63,000 since April 2014;
• Unfortunately 2,446,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed – (19.4% of the workforce), up 72,000 since April 2014.
• Despite this month’s decrease the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.4% is still a substantial 4.3% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for March 2015 (6.1%).

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates show Australian employment increasing in April to 11,318,000 (up135,000 since April 2014). The good news is that both full-time employment (7,562,000, up 82,000) and part-time employment (3,756,000, up 53,000) have increased over the past year while unemployment (1,309,000, up 9,000) is unchanged at 10.4%.

“However, the increase in part-time employment has also contributed to a significant rise in under-employment which has increased to 1,137,000 (up 63,000) over the past year with 2.446 million Australians (up 72,000) now unemployed or under-employed – 19.4% of the workforce (up 0.4%). Today’s estimates mean total Australian unemployment and under-employment has now been above 2 million Australians for 41 straight months – almost 3 ½ years.

“The RBA is widely expected to follow up its February interest rate cut with a further cut in interest rates today to a record low 2%. This is a step in the right direction for policy-makers to stimulate the Australian economy dealing with the end of the commodities boom – but the real test for the economy is next week’s Federal Budget. In a real sense the Australian economy needs far more than just interest rate cuts to regain competitiveness and provide a strong platform for growth.

“As stated by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine in last week’s State of the Nation – Focus on Politics the issue of unemployment is a huge issue for the Federal Government to address. Youth unemployment (now 17.3% amongst Australians aged 14-29yrs old) continues to be far higher than unemployment throughout the entire workforce. Even amongst older Australians (60+yr olds) there has been a large spike in unemployment (now 7.1%) in the last 18 months – now almost as high unemployment as for those aged 45-59yrs old (now 7.2%).

“To really tackle the issue of unemployment and under-employment (despite the end of the commodities boom) next week’s Federal Budget needs to provide comprehensive labour market de-regulation that will allow the nearly 2.5 million Australians looking for further employment to find jobs in a healthily growing economy. Just this week ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen to 108.7 (down 3.1pts) – its lowest since August 2014 as Australians worry about what the Federal Budget next week will contain.

“Only by undertaking tough reforms will the Government turn around both Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence – the key indicators of a growing economy. A first measure should be the abolition of weekend and public holiday penalty rates – the recent experience of shops closing in Victoria over Easter shows these penalty rates lead directly to higher levels of unemployment and under-employment.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 428,776 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2015 and includes 3,815 face-to-face interviews in April 2015.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

For further information: 

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.