This monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index was based on 1,032 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout India. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of August 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence index fell to 116.8 (down 7.9pts from July) in August mainly due to concerns about India’s economic outlook over the next year and five years, and also a drop in the number of respondents who felt that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
The index hovers just below its long-term average of 117.1, but remains 5.7pts higher than it was a year ago in August 2014 (111.1).
ANZ Senior Economist South Asia & ASEAN, Devika Mehndiratta said:
- In terms of personal finances, 19% (up 3ppts from July) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago. On the contrary, 34% (up 3ppts from July) of respondents said their families are ‘worse off’ than a year ago, the highest value recorded for the indicator since October 2014.
- 38% (down 3ppts from July) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time but 16% (up 7ppts from July) expect to be ‘worse off’.
- When thinking of future economic conditions in India, 54% (down 6ppts from July) of respondents expect India to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months while 15% (up 2ppts from July) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Over the longer term, 53% (down 7ppts from July) of respondents expect India to have ‘good times’ in the next five years, marking the lowest level for the indicator since December 2014. On the other hand, 12% (up 5ppts from July) of respondents expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- 16% (down 9ppts from July) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, the lowest value recorded for the indicator since September 2014. Meanwhile, 19% (unchanged) of respondents said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
“After recent strong gains, consumer confidence in India has fallen sharply to its lowest in ten months. The logjam in the parliamentary decision-making process resulted in a near washout of the monsoon session. The rupee has also weakened sharply (with USD/INR rising from 64.1 to 65) during the survey period. These two factors likely dealt a blow to consumer sentiment. India-Pakistan tensions in the disputed Kashmir region in early August may have been an additional dampener to respondents’ assessment of India’s longer-term prospects.
"The increased volatility in regional and international financial markets may give respondents an uneasy sense of déjà vu, reminding them of mid-2013. Domestic sentiment may hence remain weak into September.The sharp spike in onion prices in the recent week, if sustained in September, also may take some sheen away from otherwise well-behaved inflation.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - August 2015.
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