This monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index was based on 1,029 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout India. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of September 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence fell for the second consecutive month to 114.4 (down 2.4 pts) in September due to reduced optimism about personal finances. The index is below its long-term average of 117.0 although it is still 3.5pts higher than a year ago in September 2014 (110.9).
ANZ Senior Economist South Asia & ASEAN, Devika Mehndiratta said:
- In terms of personal finances, 14% (down 5ppts from August ) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, the lowest value recorded for the indicator since October 2014. In contrast, 32% (down 2ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
- 36% (down 2ppts from August) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time, the lowest recorded since the survey began. Meanwhile, 16% (unchanged) expect their families to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- When asked about their perceptions of future economic conditions in India, 53% (down 1ppt from August) of respondents expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months but 19% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Over the longer term, 55% (up 2ppts from August) of respondents expect India to have ‘good times’ during the next five years while 14% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- 18% (up 2ppts from August) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 23% (up 4ppts) who said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items, the highest value recorded for the indicator since March 2015.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence continued to lose ground after the sharp drop in August, broadly in line with our expectations. What had started out as a hit to sentiment from a weaker rupee intensified further in September (with the rupee depreciating from USD/INR 65 to briefly breach 66.80). Equity markets, which had remained stable in August, also took a sharp downturn in September in tandem with other emerging markets. Elevated domestic prices of onions (a commonly consumed vegetable) obviously didn’t help either.
"While we had expected India’s consumer confidence to weaken in September, the somewhat larger magnitude of decline compared to that of other countries in the region is surprising. If the volatility in financial markets calms down, as it seems to be the case at least at the time of writing, then it could help stabilise consumers’ sentiment in the month ahead.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - September 2015.
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