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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Softens Further
October 28 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index was based on 1,026 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout India. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index fell for the third consecutive month to 112.5 in October (down 1.9ppts m/m). The index is now below its long-term average of 116.8ppts, but remains 2.4ppts higher than it was a year ago (Oct’14: 110.1). Respondents reported reduced optimism about the country’s economic conditions for the next 12 months and over the next five years.
ANZ Senior Economist, South Asia & ASEAN, Devika Mehndiratta says:
- In terms of personal finances, 14% (unchanged from September) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago. On the other hand, 34% (up 2ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’.
- 34% (down 2ppts) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time. This is the lowest ever recorded for this indicator since the survey started. On the other hand, 16% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially, the highest recorded for the indicator since April 2014.
- When thinking of future economic conditions in India, the number of respondents who expect the country to have ‘good times’ over the next 12 months slipped to 49% (down 4ppts), the lowest since November 2014. On the other hand, 21% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially, the highest since April 2014.
- Over the longer term, 48% (down 7ppts) of the respondents expect India to have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years. This is the lowest value recorded for the indicator since December 2014. Meanwhile, 13% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’.
- 21% (up 3ppts) of respondents felt ‘now is a good time’ to buy major household items but 19% (down 4ppts) felt ‘now is a bad time’ to buy major household items.
“The average consumer seems unimpressed by the fact that the RBI had surprised the markets with a larger-than-expected 50bps cut in interest rates at end-September. Confidence dropped again this month, but the rate of decline is tapering off (-1.9ppts m/m in October vs -2.4ppts in September and -7.9ppts in August). The turbulence in financial markets (particularly INR and domestic equity) that dented consumer sentiment in the last two months, has settled in October, but it is possible that the lingering effects from that, along with the continually elevated prices of pulses (lentils) has cast a shadow over Indian households’ optimism.
"As we move nearer to the festive season of Diwali in H1 November, hopefully sentiment may recover somewhat. The key, of course, is whether that improvement can be sustained thereafter.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2015.
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