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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence fell in November
November 18 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in November was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index declined 1.2 pts to 138.4 in November, an equal record low as in September 2015.
- In terms of personal finances, 41.9% (down 0.9ppts from October) of respondents in November said that their families are ‘better off’ financially, compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 16.0% (down 0.9ppt) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 50.6% (down 0.7ppt) expected their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 7.0% (down 0.4ppt) who expected conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year declined to 56.0% (down 2.3ppts), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ rose to 15.7% (up 2.5ppts). On longer-term economic performance, 65.0% (down 2.1ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 13.8% (up 1.0ppt) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In November, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items increased to 39.5% (up 1.5ppts), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so declined to 8.7% (down 0.5ppts).
- Inflation expectations declined to 3.28% (down 0.27ppts) in November.
“The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence declined in November as respondents turned more pessimistic on China’s economic outlook. This is consistent with the sluggish October activity data, suggesting that real sector growth momentum remained weak.
"Importantly, the survey respondent’s inflation expectations declined to a record low in November, reflecting the intensifying deflation pressure in China. In fact, the October CPI inflation did ease further and PPI remained negative for over 40 months. Meanwhile, the pork price cycle, which was a key driver to the recent rise in CPI inflation, has started to fade out.
"As growth momentum is weak and deflation risk looms large, it opens the door open wider for the central bank to further ease monetary policy through reducing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and benchmark interest rates.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2015.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
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