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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence ekes out gains - up 9.5pts to 122.0
November 25 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index was based on 1,025 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout India. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index rose to 122.0 (up 9.5pts m/m) in November, buoyed by increased optimism about the country’s economic outlook over the next 12 months as well as over the next five years. This month’s gains have pushed the index back above its long-term average of 117.0pts. The index is also 3.7pts higher than it was a year ago (Nov 14: 118.3pts).
ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire says:
- In terms of personal finances, 19% (up 5ppts m/m) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, the highest since March 2015. On the other hand, 30% (down 4ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’.
- About 36% (up 2ppts) of the respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time, but 15% (down 1ppt) believe themselves to be ‘worse off’.
- Thinking of economic conditions in India, 59% (up 10ppts) of the respondents expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially in the next 12 months while 14% (down 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
- When assessing the country’s longer term prospects over the next five years, more than half of the respondents, or 58% (up 10ppts), expect India to have ‘good times’ while 8% (down 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- 22% (up 1ppt) of the respondents said ‘now is a good time’ to buy major household items compared to 17% (down 2ppts) who believe otherwise.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence rebounded strongly in November but confidence is clearly being driven by longer-term rather than shorter term factors.
"The average Indian consumer does not feel better off financially compared to a year ago. Indeed, only 19% of surveyed households asses their personal financial situations as having improved over the past twelve months. Almost twice as many, or 36%, believe that their financial lot will improve over the next twelve months. These lower perceptions of financial well-being make themselves apparent in the low number of Indian consumers (22%) who are willing to purchase a major household item at the current time.
"Still, there appears to be important medium to long term anchors influencing consumer confidence, which we could continue to assess as most likely being ‘Modi-esque’. There was a huge jump (up a large 10ppts m/m) in the number of respondents who believe that the country’s prospects will be positive over the next twelve months, and 58% (also up 10ppts) believe India will enjoy ‘good times’ over the next five years. These medium and longer term anchors should ensure domestic demand will not slip and India’s economic recovery trajectory will remain intact.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2015.
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