This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,057 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend November 28/29, 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.5% to 112.8 this week, taking the cumulative fall over the last three weeks to 3.3%. The four week moving average remains elevated; however, it is now trending downwards – suggesting confidence has turned.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
- Consumers views’ towards their current finances have declined over the past three weeks. The subindex on ‘finances compared to a year ago’ was down 5.1% last week. Providing a partial offset, the subindex on ‘finances in the next 12 months’ was up 1.5%.
- Confidence in the economic outlook deteriorated last week. The subindex on ‘economic conditions in the next 5 years’ fell 3.0%, and is now down 7.3% over the past three weeks. The subindex on ‘economic conditions in the next 12 months’ fell 3.4 last week, further adding to the overall decline in confidence.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen for three consecutive weeks now, which may be an early sign that the honeymoon period for the Turnbull government is over. This turnaround in confidence has been mainly driven by a deterioration in consumers’ views towards the economic outlook.
"Last week’s soft capex report highlights the challenges facing the non-mining economy. With newsflow continuing to focus on the mixed conditions in the economy, it will be difficult to sustainably lift consumers’ views towards the economic outlook.
"Ultimately, the labour market will continue to be a key factor driving both confidence and the RBA rates decision. As such, next week’s job advertisements will provide more indication on this front."
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research said:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has now fallen for a third straight week - now at 112.8 (down 3.8pts in three weeks) following the Paris terror attacks on Friday November 13.
"The largest falls during this period have been in relation to the Australian economy - sentiment in regards to the Australian economy over the next 12 months has fallen from +5 to -2 (down 7pts) and for the Australian economy over the next five years has fallen from +14 to +6 (down 8pts).
"The worries about the Australian economy tie into worries about war and terrorism overseas - this is shown by the most recent Roy Morgan 'Most Important Problems Facing Australia and the World' research conducted in mid-October (before the Paris terror attacks). This showed Australians regard Economic issues (38%) as easily the most important set of problems facing Australia, but showed Terrorism & War (30%) were the most important problems facing the World.
"The continuing, and complicated, war in Syria and Iraq, and the threat of terrorism around the world as shown by recent attacks in Paris, Beirut, Turkey, Egypt and other places around the world is having a clearly negative impact on Consumer Confidence and Australia's economic fortunes.
"The good news for the Turnbull Government is the increasing strength of the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating - now at 122 (up 36pts since Turnbull took over in mid-September) - and which has consistently increased even after the Paris terror attacks. The strong performance of Government Confidence in recent weeks shows Australians believe this is tbe best Government to lead Australia through the tough world situationi we now face, even as Consumer Confidence is negatively impacted by war and terrorism overseas.
"The best defence Australia can have against unrest overseas is for a strong economy in Australia - and this is why new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull must be prepared to make the tough decisions now to give Australia the best chance of strong economic growth, and continuing jobs growth, over the years ahead."
Most of the interviewing done to measure the ANZ-Roy Morgan Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence results was completed before the Paris Terror Attacks on Friday November 13 so December and later Consumer Confidence measurements are very important as they will measure the impact of these terrorist attacks and intentsifying conflicts around the world.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence was down slightly to 138.4 in November which is still significantly higher than in Australia (112.8) and New Zealand (122.7). A similar high result was measured in Indonesia (144.2), Vietnam (142.3) and Hong Kong (133.3).
Singapore (125.2) and India (122.0) were at a similar level to New Zealand and Thailand (112.3) is just below Australia whie Taiwan (91.3) and South Korea (83.6) are both well below the neutral level of 100 in negative territory.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, said:
"Australia's economic fortunes are closely tied to the economies of China and other Asia-Pacific countries - particularly resource exports, tourism and education. December's ANZ-Roy Morgan Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence results will show the impact of the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and in other places around the world on Consumer Confidence throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
"The three consecutive falls in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Rating since the Paris terror attacks show the negative impact this terrorism has already had on Australian Consumer Confidence which has dropped from a more than 18 month high of 116.6 (November 7/8) to 112.8 (November 28/29) this week - down 3.8pts."
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.