Back To Listing

Australian real unemployment 9.6% in June as new Government takes office

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 489,233 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2016 and includes 3,881 face-to-face interviews in June 2016.
The good news for the re-elected Turnbull Government is that June unemployment fell 1.1% to 9.6% - although this is still well above the current ABS figure for May 2016 (5.7%).

However, the rising levels of employment were led by an increase in part-time employment (3,951,000, up 208,000 from June 2015) while full-time employment was down 28,000 to 7,792,000. Increasing part-time employment leads directly to increases in under-employment – now at 8.3% (up 0.9% since May 2016).

  • In June a total of 2.326 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed. The fall in unemployment in June almost evenly matched by rising levels of under-employment was observed in last year’s June unemployment estimates;

  • In total there were 12,990,000 Australians in the workforce in June, up 207,000 from a month ago (and up 235,000 since June 2015) and 11,743,000 Australians are employed (up 180,000 since June 2015);

  • 9.6% of the workforce (1,247,000 people) are unemployed – up 55,000 since June 2015 (the unemployment rate is up 0.3% from a year ago) and 1,079,000 Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more hours (8.3% of the workforce – down 50,000 (down 0.6%);

  • A total of 2,326,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: a large 17.9% of the workforce – up 5,000 (but down 0.3% due to the larger size of the workforce) since June 2015.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2015

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2015

2,384

18.9

1,327

10.5

656

672

1,057

8.4

Apr-Jun 2015

2,359

18.7

1,263

10.0

618

645

1,096

8.7

Jul-Sep 2015

2,061

16.2

1,109

8.7

518

591

952

7.5

Oct-Dec 2015

2,475

19.2

1,184

9.2

603

581

1,291

10.0

2016

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Apr-Jun 2016

2,322

18.1

1,317

10.2

637

680

1,005

7.8

Months

May 2015

2,310

18.5

1,289

10.3

646

643

1,021

8.2

June 2015

2,321

18.2

1,192

9.3

552

640

1,129

8.9

July 2015

2,074

16.4

1,097

8.7

525

572

977

7.7

August 2015

2,117

16.6

1,173

9.2

548

625

944

7.4

September 2015

1,994

15.6

1,058

8.3

482

576

936

7.3

October 2015

2,198

17.4

1,110

8.8

464

646

1,088

8.6

November 2015

2,536

19.6

1,186

9.2

623

563

1,350

10.4

December 2015

2,690

20.7

1,256

9.7

722

534

1,434

11.0

January 2016

2,575

19.7

1,346

10.3

696

650

1,229

9.4

February 2016

2,480

18.8

1,319

10.0

589

730

1,161

8.8

March 2016

2,433

18.8

1,422

11.0

631

791

1,011

7.8

April 2016

2,322

18.1

1,334

10.4

611

723

988

7.7

May 2016

2,316

18.1

1,369

10.7

661

708

947

7.4

June 2016

2,326

17.9

1,247

9.6

637

610

1,079

8.3

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“In June Australia’s real unemployment was 9.6% (1.247 million people looking for work, 55,000 more than a year ago) and under-employment was 8.3% (1,079,000, down 50,000 in a year) – a total of 17.9% (2.326 million) Australians looking for work or looking for more work. The monthly movements in June this year are very similar to the movements of a year ago with the fall in unemployment almost evenly matched by the rise in under-employment.

“The good news in June was a strong increase in overall employment – now at 11,743,000 (up 180,000 from a year ago). However looking closely at the figures shows the increase was entirely driven by increasing part-time employment – now at 3,951,000 (up 208,000) while full-time employment fell to 7,792,000 (down 28,000). Although the economy has been growing it is not translating into an increase in full-time jobs.

“This slow employment market was largely ignored by the major parties in the Federal Election campaign. It is why neither party secured a clear victory. The lack of coherent plans and details on how each major party would grow the Australian economy and generate jobs is the reason for the high vote for minor parties – today counted at 22.9%.

“Hopefully, the ‘shock’ of a close election result – along with the record high support for minor parties – will mean both Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten start listening to the clear message the electorate is sending the major parties. Nearly a quarter of the Australian electorate feels ignored and unheard by Australia’s political leaders.

“Acknowledging Australia’s true unemployment and under-employment figures is the first step both Turnbull and Shorten should take to ‘reconnect’ with the many voters who have abandoned the major parties. In the US, presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has set a fine example for both leaders. On several occasions Trump has stated the real US unemployment rate is far higher than the widely quoted figure – nearer to 20% than the official rate of only 4.7%!"

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 489,233 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2016 and includes 3,881 face-to-face interviews in June 2016.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS put their ‘heads in the sand’ and refuse to accept the reality and does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).


For further information

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2016)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2016)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2016)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2016)

Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimate - June 2016 - 9.6%

Roy Morgan Unemployment - June Quarter 2016 - 9.6%

Roy Morgan Under-employment - June 2016 - 17.9%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2