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National support down but still has election winning lead after boost from $1 billion housing infrastructure fund announcement wears off

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors in August 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

During August support for National fell 7% to 46% which is still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40% (up 3%) and in-line with National’s level of support over the past year. National experienced a significant boost in support in July following the announcement of a targeted $1 billion housing infrastructure policy. If a NZ Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would clearly be in the best position to form Government.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party up 1% to 1.5% while Act NZ was 1% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 25.5% (unchanged), Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 9.5% (up 2.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (unchanged).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127.5pts (up 0.5pts) in August with 58% (up 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (unchanged) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. New Zealand Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 103.5pts in August.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National has fallen back below the crucial level of 50% - now at 46% (down 7%). However, National is still well ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 40% (up 3%). This month’s result returns National to a figure more in-line with its level of support over the past year after National experienced a significant jump in support in July following the announcement of a targeted $1 billion housing infrastructure policy.

“Unfortunately for Opposition Leader Andrew Little, the Labour Party hasn’t itself benefited from the drop in support for National – unchanged at 25.5%. The key beneficiaries are the two other main Parliamentary parties the Greens at 14.5% (up 3%) and potential ‘king-makers’ New Zealand First 9.5% (up 2.5%).

“The main focus during August was New Zealand’s performance at the Olympics – a credible 4 gold medals won was only slightly fewer than New Zealand’s performance at London 2012. However, of more importance to the New Zealand economy and the National-led Government’s future in particular was the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut New Zealand interest rates to a record low of 2% which suggests the RBNZ sees a challenging period ahead before New Zealand heads to an election later next year.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors in August 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0