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National Party support is at lowest level since before election; now behind potential Labour/ Greens Alliance

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in September 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5% (the lowest support for National in three years since September 2013) now clearly behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45.5% (up 5.5%) for the first time in a year – since September 2015 after Prime Minister John Key attended several overseas summits in early September.

If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First would hold the balance of power in determining whether a National-led Government would continue or whether there would be a three-party alliance of Labour/Greens/NZ First governing.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party up 0.5% to 2% while Act NZ was 1% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 33.5% (up a large 8% to its equal highest support since November 2013), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (down 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

In line with the drop in support for National the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 117pts (down 10.5pts) in September with 52% (down 6%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ (the lowest since July 2015) compared to 35% (up 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (the equal highest figure for this indicator since March 2013).

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National has fallen for the second straight month – down 4.5% to 41.5% - the lowest support for National for three years since September 2013. National is now clearly behind a potential Labour/ Greens 45.5% (up 5.5%) after Prime Minister John Key spent early September overseas attending regional summits in Laos (East Asia Summit) & Micronesia (Pacific Islands Forum).

“The good news for Opposition Leader Andrew Little is that the Labour Party are for once the largest beneficiaries of this month’s swing in support – Labour have jumped a large 8% to 33.5%, the highest level of support for Labour since Little became the Opposition Leader nearly two years ago while Greens support is down 2.5% to 12%.

“Despite losing a small amount of support, NZ First (8.5%, down 1%) Leader Winston Peters has reason to be happy with today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If today’s result were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election Peters would be in position to determine whether current PM John Key continued as Prime Minister for a fourth term or whether Opposition Leader Andrew Little stepped up to become New Zealand’s next Prime Minister.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in September 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

Contact

Office

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0