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National Party support up in October; now well ahead of potential Labour/ Greens alliance after successful overseas trips for PM Key

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors in October 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas – including an address to a UN conference in late September. If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 26.5% (down 7%), Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%) and NZ First 10% (up 1.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (up 0.5%).

In line with the jump in support for National the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 126.5pts (up 9.5pts) in October with 55.5% (up 3.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 29% (down 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’).

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Following several overseas trips for Prime Minister John Key including travelling to New York to address the United Nations in late September today’s October Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National has increased substantially – up 6.5% to 48%.

“Key’s September trips were followed up by a much publicised trip to India to visit one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners in late October – although this trip was after this poll was conducted. Key’s trip to India was primarily to support the negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between the two nations after Key launched the NZ Inc India Strategy in 2011.

“Although support for National has increased by only 1% since the 2014 NZ Election just over two years ago it is worth noting that support for right-wing rivals the Conservatives has crashed to a negligible less than 0.5% - down nearly 4% since the election. This support appears to have returned to National and a resurgent NZ First – 10% (up 1.5% in October).”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors in October 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

Contact

Office

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0