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National Party support up slightly in February as new PM Bill English welcomes visit of Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 852 electors between January 30 – February 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

During February support for National rose by 2% to 48% now well ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 39% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would retain Government with the support of minor party allies.

Support for the National partners was virtually unchanged with the Maori Party unchanged at 2%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 26% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 0.5%) and New Zealand First 8% (down 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ was 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others was 2% (unchanged).

In addition the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 140pts in February with 63.5% (up 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows growing support for the Government of new Prime Minister Bill English with National 48% (up 2%) now at their highest since English became Prime Minister in early December.

“National is well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 39% (down 0.5%) and in a position to retain Government with the support of minor party allies the Maori Party 2% (unchanged) and Act NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and without the support of the fourth largest party NZ First 8% (down 1%).

“The strong support for National comes as PM English welcomed his first foreign visitor last week, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Both leaders face pressing issues in the area of Housing including – including Housing affordability and the Homeless/ Homelessness, however the problem is more acute in New Zealand than Australia.

Today’s special Roy Morgan analysis of New Zealand’s ‘Housing Crisis’ reveals 26% of respondents in NZ said either Housing affordability/ Increasing house prices (15%) or Housing shortage/ Homelessness (11%) were the biggest problems facing New Zealand. In New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland Housing issues were mentioned by an even higher 32% of respondents.

“These figures show that the most effective way English can secure a fourth successive term of Government for National is to convince New Zealand electors that it is National that has the answers to deal with these inter-related Housing issues rather than their opponents Labour, the Greens, or even New Zealand First.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 852 electors between January 30 – February 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0