2.3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in April

• In April the total Australian workforce was 13,133,000 (up 323,000 in a year) and employment grew strongly to 11,916,000 (up 440,000);
  
  
• However the increase in employment was entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment which rose 471,000 to 4,300,000 while full-time employment fell 31,000 to 7,616,000;
  
  
• So while real unemployment at 9.3% is down 1.1% from a year ago, under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.3% over the same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time employment at the expense of full-time jobs;
  
  
• The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2017 (5.9%).
  
  

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says real unemployment at 9.3% is far higher than the ABS claims – and there are an additional 1 million+ under-employed Australians:

“Australia’s real unemployment rate of 9.3% (1.217 million Australians) in April is far higher than the 5.9% claimed by the ABS as Treasurer Scott Morrison prepares to deliver the first Federal Budget of the re-elected Turnbull Government this week.

“In addition – a further 1.090 million Australians are under-employed (8.3% of the workforce), and regularly ignored by both the major political parties and the mainstream media.

“For the first time last week Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull met new US President Donald Trump who was clear during his campaign that the real American unemployment rate was 20% or 25% rather than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figure below 5%.

“Turnbull and his Ministers in Australia need to understand the issues are the same in Australia and the Turnbull Government must follow Trump’s lead by implementing policies to bring back jobs to Australia. The decision to scrap 457 visas in addition to the Fair Work Commission’s decision to reduce weekend and public holiday penalty rates are small steps in the right direction that must be built on.

“The 440,000 new jobs created over the past year show the Australian economy is growing but excessive regulations and red tape, combined with high corporate tax rates, are holding back the economy from providing full-time jobs, and additional hours, to the Australians that need them.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 531,252 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2017 and includes 5,392 face-to-face interviews in April 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

For further information: 

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2017)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2017)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.