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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence cools down to 120.1

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,108 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend July 7/8, 2018.
Headline ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth straight week, down 0.2% to 120.1. The details were mixed – three out of five subindices posted gains, but the headline was weighed down by falls in sentiment around current financial conditions and ‘time to buy a household item’.

  • Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7% last week following two consecutive 2.8% rises in the previous weeks. Meanwhile, sentiment around future conditions rose 1.5% on the back of a 0.2% bounce previously.
  • Households’ assessment of current economic conditions bounced 2.7% last week, partially reversing the previous week’s 6.6% fall. Similarly, views towards future economic conditions improved 1.6%, following a 2.5% decline the previous week. Both subindices sit above their long term average.
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ subindex fell 3.6% last week, more than reversing the previous week’s 1.5% gain. Four week moving average inflation expectations edged down to 4.4%.

ANZ Senior Economist, Felicity Emmett, commented:

“Despite its fourth consecutive weekly fall, confidence remains well above its long term average.

"Notably, last week’s deterioration in sentiment was driven by a fall in current financial conditions and the ‘time to buy a household item’ subindex. Though they sit above their long term averages at the moment, we will be closely watching these indexes as they are well correlated with retail sales and spending more broadly. Retail sales reports for April and May surprised on the upside, but further deterioration of these subindices could indicate weakness in spending going forward.

"Stepping back from the weekly volatility, aggregate financial conditions have tracked sideways in June, while aggregate economic conditions have edged up slightly despite renewed concerns about global trade. Overall, consumers remain quite optimistic despite high levels of debt and falling house prices.”






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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2