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Australian employment up by over 350,000 in a year

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – May 2018. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for May shows:

  • The workforce is 13,461,000 comprised of employed and unemployed, up a large 387,000 on a year ago;

  • 12,415,000 Australians were employed in May, up a significant 355,000 over the past year;

  • The increase was driven by full-time employment which rose 307,000 to 7,859,000 while part-time employment was up 48,000 to 4,286,000;

  • 1,316,000 Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce); an increase of 32,000 (unchanged in percentage terms) on a year ago. In addition 1,251,000 Australians (9.3% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 87,000 in a year (down 0.9%);

  • Roy Morgan real unemployment figures of 9.8% for May are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2018 of 5.6%.

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - May 2018 - 19.1%

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2017

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2017

2,377

17.9

1,261

9.5

591

670

1,116

8.4

Apr-Jun 2017

2,525

19.0

1,234

9.3

607

627

1,291

9.7

Jul-Sep 2017

2,508

19.1

1,254

9.6

598

656

1,254

9.5

Oct-Dec 2017

2,442

18.5

1,275

9.7

659

616

1,167

8.8

2018

Jan-Mar 2018

2,561

18.9

1,246

9.2

626

620

1,314

9.7

Months

April 2017

2,307

17.6

1,217

9.3

612

605

1,090

8.3

May 2017

2,622

20.0

1,284

9.8

659

625

1,338

10.2

June 2017

2,645

19.6

1,200

8.9

550

650

1,445

10.7

July 2017

2,462

18.8

1,236

9.4

568

668

1,226

9.4

August 2017

2,565

19.7

1,324

10.2

639

685

1,241

9.5

September 2017

2,498

18.9

1,202

9.1

586

616

1,296

9.8

October 2017

2,334

18.0

1,226

9.5

658

568

1,108

8.5

November 2017

2,394

18.2

1,288

9.8

624

664

1,106

8.4

December 2017

2,600

19.4

1,312

9.8

696

616

1,288

9.6

January 2018

2,590

19.3

1,219

9.1

642

577

1,371

10.2

February 2018

2,520

18.6

1,310

9.7

658

652

1,210

8.9

March 2018

2,572

18.9

1,210

8.9

578

632

1,362

10.0

April 2018

2,545

19.3

1,196

9.1

561

635

1,349

10.2

May 2018

2,567

19.1

1,316

9.8

627

689

1,251

9.3

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.



Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, said employment growth in Australia has been strong over the last year but has made only a slight difference to overall unemployment and under-employment which has averaged just over 2.5 million for the year:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates show employment growth of 355,000 over the past year with full-time employment increasing by 307,000 and part-time employment up by 48,000.

“Although employment growth has been strong, the increasing Australian population, and the increasing size of the Australian workforce, means this strong employment growth has had only a small impact on overall unemployment and under-employment.

“In May 2.567 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed comprising over 1.3 million unemployed and over 1.25 million under-employed. This is only slightly down on the 2.622 million Australians unemployed or under-employed a year ago. In fact, overall unemployment and under-employment has now averaged over 2.5 million since December 2016 despite strong jobs growth.

“The Fair Work Commission’s decision on Friday to raise the minimum wage by 3.5% to almost $720 per week will do nothing to reduce the ‘true’ high levels of unemployment and under-employment. The decision was based on the misleading ABS unemployment figure that under-states the ‘true’ level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia.

“In future the Fair Work Commission needs to consider the more accurate Roy Morgan employment figures that consistently records there are more than 2.5 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“Last month’s Federal Budget did include some good news with income tax cuts due to take effect from July and wage subsidies provided to employers to take on certain types of older workers.  However, these reforms are unlikely to have a big impact on Australia’s over 2.5 million unemployed and under-employed.

“The Turnbull Government’s policy of cutting company tax rates from 30% to 25% which will spur greater investment and hiring by businesses with more money to spend was announced in early 2017 and is still yet to be legislated.

“The booming US economy with record low levels of unemployment following substantial cuts to company tax rates by US President Donald Trump is a powerful example of what this tax reform could achieve when enacted.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 583,399 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2018 and includes 3,897 face-to-face interviews in May 2018.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2018)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2018)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - May 2018 - 9.8%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - March quarter 2018 - 9.2%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: (+61) (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com