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Liberal leadership fight boosts ALP support, but ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up after leadership resolved

Finding No. 7716 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends with 886 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 18/19, 2018 and a further 821 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 25/26, 2018. Of electors surveyed on August 18/19, 2018 5% did not name a party and of electors surveyed on August 25/26, 2018 6% did not name a party.
The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the L-NP down 3.5% to 46% following a week of leadership upheaval for the Federal Liberal Party boosting ALP support by 3.5% to 54% on a two-party preferred basis according to interviewing conducted on the weekend of August 25/26, 2018 with 821 electors.

The two Morgan Polls taken over the past week show the former Malcolm Turnbull-led L-NP Government was within striking distance of the ALP on the weekend before Turnbull was ousted as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader. The L-NP was on 49.5% cf. 50.5% ALP on a two-party preferred basis on the weekend of August 18/19, 2018 according to interviewing conducted with 886 electors.

Although leadership tensions in a party usually undermine support for that party and undermine confidence, last week’s leadership upheaval hasn’t negatively impacted on broader Consumer Confidence – this week’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.4pts to 116.5.

Interviewing for Consumer Confidence was taken entirely after the resolution of the Liberal leadership contest on Friday afternoon and Scott Morrison was sworn in as Australia’s 30th Prime Minister at 6pm on Friday evening.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence results are available to view in full here.

The Federal Liberal partyroom voted for Morrison as the new leader despite several snap SMS Morgan Polls conducted last week showing former Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop fared best when compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in head-to-head contest.

Better PM: Federal Liberal Leadership Contenders cf. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten

Julie Bishop 64% cf. Bill Shorten 36%;

Malcolm Turnbull 54% cf. Bill Shorten 46%;

Bill Shorten 50.5% cf. Scott Morrison 49.5%;

Bill Shorten 62% cf. Peter Dutton 38%.

All ‘can’t say’ and ‘don’t know’ responses have been removed from these results to make them directly comparable. For further details of the Better Prime Minister leadership results see here.

On the weekend of August 25/26, 2018 primary support for the L-NP dropped 2.5% to 36.5% while primary support for the ALP increased 1.5% to 36% and support for the Greens increased 1% to 13%.

Support for One Nation increased 0.5% to 2.5% while support for the Centre Alliance was down 0.5% to 0.5%. Support for Indpendent/Others was unchanged at 11.5%. Of all electors surveyed 6% were undecided, up 1% on a week ago.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating drops following leadership ructions

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 11pts to 84 this week with only 33.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 49.5% (up 4.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

“The Liberal Party’s leadership battle last week has cost the L-NP Government significant support in the electorate with the ALP now a clear leader on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP increased two-party support by 3.5% to 54% over the course of the week and now has a clear election winning lead over the L-NP on 46%.

“Amazingly, the L-NP started the week only just behind on a two-party preferred basis with the L-NP on 49.5% cf. 50.5% ALP. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull even suggested in his final press conference as Prime Minister that Liberal Party internal polling had the Government ahead of the Opposition.

“In addition to being competitive on a two-party preferred basis the Morgan Poll showed that Turnbull remained a clear preferred Prime Minister even in the midst of leadership challenges.

“On Wednesday last week, after Turnbull had survived a leadership challenge and looked set to face a new one, Turnbull was preferred to Shorten as ‘Better PM’: Turnbull 54% cf. Shorten 46%. This compared favourably to his challenger Peter Dutton who was well behind Shorten on the same measure: Shorten 62% cf. Dutton 38%.

“Today’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 2.4pts to 116.5. Interviewing for Consumer Confidence was conducted over the weekend and began the day after Morrison was sworn in as Australia’s 30th Prime Minister early on Friday evening.

“In contrast to the increase in Consumer Confidence indicating a relaxed view of the performance of the broader economy, Australians are clearly concerned about the Government’s performance. Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged by 11pts on the weekend to 84 with only 33.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

“It is a rare occurrence that Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence move in such different directions however the leadership issues at the top of the Government are a clear catalyst on this occasion.

“The fact Australians are able to separate what are expected to be short-term Federal Government leadership concerns from worries about the performance of the broader Australian economy should provide comfort to businesses, and in particular retailers, heading towards the important Christmas retailing season over the next few months.

“Although the past week has undoubtedly cost the new Morrison-led Government support in the short-term the good news for the new Government is that Australians already appear to be shaking off any concerns about Federal Government leadership woes.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 7716 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face  interviewing over the last two weekends with 886 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 18/19, 2018 and a further 821 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 25/26, 2018. Of electors surveyed on August 18/19, 2018 5% did not name a party and of electors surveyed on August 25/26, 2018 6% did not name a party.

Federal Voting Intention Summary – House of Reps (%)

L-NP

ALP

The

Greens

One Nation

NXT/ Centre
Alliance

Ind./

Others

RECENT FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

%

Election, July 2, 2016

42.1 (4.8)

35.0

9.8

1.3

1.9

9.9

MORGAN POLL

L-NP

ALP

The Greens

One

Nation

NXT/Centre Alliance

Ind./
Others

March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018

36 (2.5)

36

13.5

3

1.5

10

March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018

40 (5.5)

35

12

3.5

0.5

9

August 18/19, 2018

39 (4.5)

34.5

12

2

1

11.5

August 25/26, 2018

36.5 (4.5)

36

13

2.5

0.5

11.5

Two-Party Preferred Vote (%)

RECENT FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

L-NP

ALP

%

%

Election, July 2, 2016

50.3

49.7

MORGAN POLL

L-NP

ALP

March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018

46

54

March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018

49

51

August 18/19, 2018

49.5

50.5

August 25/26, 2018

46

54


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093

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