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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up to record high 163 in October

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ October 2018 (n=1,283).
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 2.6pts to a record high of 163.0 in October 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 9.2pts higher than a year ago in October 2017 (153.8) and 27.1pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 135.9.

The strong year-on-year increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence has been driven by large increases amongst the two lowest income quintiles which have both increased Consumer Confidence by more than 10% from a year ago, although Consumer Confidence is up for all five income quintiles. 

The increase in October from a month ago was driven by increased confidence about family’s personal financial situations compared to a year ago and also increasing confidence about that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items at a more than four-year high.

Now 43% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2015) and 7% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator in over four years since August 2014).

In addition, an increasing majority of 72% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In October, 93% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (an equal record high figure for this indicator), and only 7% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially (an equal record low figure for this indicator).

And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 5% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’.

In October now 65% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since August 2014) and 36% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2014).


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ October 2018 (n=1,283).

Consumer Confidence up the most for two lowest household income quintiles

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by household income quintile shows Consumer Confidence increasing across all five household income quintiles, although easily the biggest increases have been with the two lowest income quintiles which have significantly closed the gap on higher income quintiles compared to this time a year ago.

Consumer Confidence for those in the lowest household income quintile increased by 16.5pts to 156.2 since October last year and by 15.7pts to 160.6 for the second lowest household income quintile.

The increases for the two lowest household income quintiles were both over 10% from a year ago and drove the overall increase of 9.2pts from October 2017. However, despite the strength of these increases, Consumer Confidence for the two lowest household income quintiles remains lower than for higher quintiles and remains below the overall level of Consumer Confidence for Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence also increased over the past year for the middle income and higher income quintiles with the top income quintile increasing by 4.2pts to 169.1 in October. The highest income quintile still has clearly the highest Consumer Confidence of any income quintile.

Consumer Confidence for the middle (third) income quintile increased by 3pts to 163.3 and Consumer Confidence for the fourth income quintile by 6pts to 164.4. Both the third and fourth income quintiles again have Consumer Confidence slightly higher than the national average of 163.0 in October.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Region: October 2017 cf. October 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Oct. 2017 (n=2,1343) & Oct. 2018 (n=1,283).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:


"Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 2.6pts to 163.0 in October and a new record high. Consumer Confidence in Indonesia has increased fairly consistently over the last three years in Indonesia since reaching a low of 143.2 in September-October 2015. Consumer Confidence is up 19.8pts (+13.8%) over the last three years.

“Nearly half of this increase has occurred over the last year with Consumer Confidence now 9.2pts higher than a year ago in October 2017 (153.8) and significantly higher than in neighbouring countries Australia (117.8 in mid-November) and New Zealand (115.4 in October)

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher over the past year has been strong increases in Consumer Confidence for lower income quintiles. The largest increases were for the two lowest household income quintiles although Consumer Confidence was up for all five household income quintiles.

“Consumer Confidence for the lowest household income quintile increased 16.5pts to 156.2 and by 15.7pts to 160.6 for the second lowest household income quintiles – both increases of more than 10%.

“However, despite these strong increases Consumer Confidence still co-relates strongly to household income with the top quintile with the highest household income still having clearly the highest Consumer Confidence of any quintile at 169.1, up by 4.2pts from a year ago.

“The record high Consumer Confidence, and the strong increases in Consumer Confidence for lower income quintiles closing the gap on higher income quintiles are good signs for President Joko Widodo as he faces re-election in April 2019 at the Indonesian Presidential Election. Roy Morgan has shown over many years, and many election campaigns, that countries with high Consumer Confidence rarely change leaders at elections.”


The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,283 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in October throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia November 17/18, 2018 – 117.8) and New Zealand (October 2018 – 115.4) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.


Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0


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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2