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Australians expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018

Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1980-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”
A special Roy Morgan survey taken in mid-December shows 44% of Australians think 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018, 32% say 2019 will be ‘the same’, only 14% say 2019 will be ‘worse’ and 10% don’t know.

Australians are far more positive about 2019 than they were a year ago when asked about 2018 when only 31% said 2018 would be ‘better’ than 2017, a record low.

However, Australians are again less optimistic than their counterparts in New Zealand with a majority of New Zealanders (51%) saying 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to only 14% that say 2019 will be ‘worse’. See here for more details on New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1980-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?” 

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’


Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Slightly more men (45%) than women (44%) expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018, although there are also more men (19%) that say 2019 will be ‘worse’ than 2018 than women (10%).

Analysing by age group shows the usual trend with younger people more optimistic about 2019 than older people. 54% of 18-24 year olds expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 – and this figure drops for each subsequent age group: 51% of 25-34yr olds, 48% of 35-49yr olds and only 28% of those aged 50+ say 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018.

Total

Australia

Gender

Age

Total

NZ

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

44

45

44

54

51

48

28

51

Same

32

29

35

21

32

29

40

27

Worse

14

19

10

14

8

13

23

14

Don’t know

10

7

11

11

9

10

9

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by State shows people in all States are more positive about 2019 compared to 2018. A year ago three States had more respondents expecting the year ahead to be ‘worse’ than ‘better’.

Tasmanians are most optimistic about 2019 with 57% expecting 2019 to be ‘better’ than 2018 ahead of West Australians (50%) and Victorians (47%).

Respondents in the Cities (45%) are marginally more positive about 2019 being ‘better’ than 2017 compared to those in the Country (43%).

States

City/ Country

Total

Australia

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

City

Country

Total

NZ

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

44

42

47

41

50

40

57

45

43

51

Same

32

32

29

37

33

33

24

32

32

27

Worse

14

18

11

14

11

16

12

15

14

14

Don’t know

10

8

13

8

6

11

7

8

11

8

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:

“Australians have entered 2019 in a more positive frame of mind than a year ago with 44% expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 an increase of 13% points from a year ago.

“Only 14% of Australians expect 2019 will be ‘worse’ than 2018, less than half the result a year ago when 30% of respondents expected 2018 would be ‘worse’ than 2017. As it turned out Consumer Confidence in 2018 averaged 118.5, its highest since 2013.

“Younger Australians are easily the most optimistic about 2019 with a majority of Australians aged 18-34 years old expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 while only 28% of Australians aged over 50 are positive about 2019.

“The first half of 2019 is set to be dominated by political discussions with a key New South Wales State election scheduled for late March and a Federal Election expected only a few weeks later in mid-May.

“The expectation for many is that Australia is set to see a change of Government at this year’s Federal Election with Bill Shorten becoming Australia’s third Prime Minister in under a year.”

Finding No. 7840 – This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,028 Australians on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked “Do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (Australia)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

42

43

32

57

57

52

36

39

47

43

33

Same

33

26

22

24

25

24

23

21

22

22

18

Worse

25

31

46

19

18

24

41

40

31

35

49

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996*

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

54

42

60

65

53

n/a

50

55

49

46

53

Same

20

22

22

19

29

n/a

28

25

30

33

21

Worse

26

36

18

16

18

n/a

22

20

21

21

26

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2017

2018

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

51

68

61

49

47

53

49

66

31

44

Same

16

17

22

22

25

24

17

18

39

32

Worse

33

15

17

29

28

23

34

16

30

14

Don’t know

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*This survey wasn’t conducted in 1996 and between 2010-2016.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2