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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 115.2

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,072 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend February 9/10, 2019.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence made a partial recovery last week, rising 1.0%. Worryingly, inflation expectations declined further.

  • Current financial conditions rose 0.8%, while future financial conditions were more upbeat, rising 3.6%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose by 1.1% after four consecutive weekly declines.
  • Economic conditions acted as a drag on the index, with both the subindices declining. Views on current economic conditions fell by 0.2% and future economic conditions by 0.8%
  • The four-week moving average of inflation expectations declined by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, the lowest since 2016 and close to the series’ record low of 3.9%.

ANZ’s Chief Economist, Richard Yetsenga, commented:

“Consumer confidence improved last week, offsetting some of the prior decline, and remaining above the long term average. An important trend that has emerged is an entrenched decline in inflation expectations. The 15% fall in petrol prices over the past three months may be a short-term influence on inflation expectations. But the decline since 2017 is concerning given the improvements in the labour market. Inflation expectations are close to the record low of 3.9% recorded in 2016, not long after the RBA last cut interest rates. In the US also, consumers’ inflation expectations haven’t responded to the tightening labour market as might have been expected over the past year. Deflationary forces are proving to be stubborn and would be a surprise to central banks.”


Click here to download the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence PDF.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2