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Jokowi set for election victory but lead over Prabowo down again in April: Jokowi 54.5% cf. Prabowo 45.5%

Indonesian President Joko Widodo is set to be re-elected for a second term as Indonesia’s President at next week’s Presidential Election although his lead over challenger Prabowo has narrowed again in late March and early April.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo is set to be re-elected for a second term as Indonesia’s President at next week’s Presidential Election although his lead over challenger Prabowo has narrowed again in late March and early April.

On a head-to-head basis President Jokowi now has the support of 54.5% of Indonesian electors, down 2% since mid-March, compared to 45.5% (up 2%) for Prabowo according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidency conducted between mid-March and early April 2019 with 1,224 Indonesian electors aged 17+.

The election winning lead held by President Jokowi continues to translate into a significant lead for his party the PDI-P. The PDI-P has the support of 39% (unchanged since mid-March) of Indonesians for the concurrent Indonesian legislative elections in a few weeks. However, the rise in support for Prabowo appears to have significantly boosted support for his party Gerindra, now with the support of 26% of Indonesian electors in April, up 5% from mid-March.

The remaining 35% of support is spread between a multitude of parties contesting the elections.

Jokowi leads in Central & East Java while Prabowo has the lead in Jakarta, West Java & Banten

Analysing the Roy Morgan Indonesian Presidential Poll by location shows Jokowi now leads strongly in rural areas such as Central Java, East Java and the island of Sulawesi while Prabowo is strongest in Jakarta, West Java & Banten, Southern Sumatra and the island of Kalimantan with only a week to go before the poll. 

The source of Prabowo’s improved performance in the last few weeks has come in the capital of Jakarta and the surrounding areas in West Java and Banten. Prabowo has opened up a sizeable lead in Jakarta, West Java & Banten with Prabowo on 60% (up 7.5% since mid-March) compared to Jokowi on 40% (down 7.5%).

However, in the other key provinces of Java it is Jokowi who holds a very strong and election-winning lead. In Jokowi’s home province of Central Java President Jokowi now captures 70% of the support (up 4% since mid-March) compared to Prabowo on 30% (down 4%). Support for the President is similar in the neighbouring provinces of East Java and Bali: Jokowi (70%) cf. Prabowo (30%).

Jokowi also leads handily on the island of Sulawesi: Jokowi (62%) cf. Prabowo (38%) and holds a narrow advantage in the northern provinces of Sumatra: Jokowi (51.5%) cf. Prabowo (48.5%).

In Sumatra’s southern provinces which neighbour Prabowo’s home area of West Java there is also a clear advantage for the challenger with Prabowo (57.5%) increasing his lead over Jokowi (42.5%) since March.

Prabowo has also maintained his advantage on the island of Kalimantan where Prabowo (55.5%) leads Jokowi (45.5%) by a significant margin.

Support for Prabowo increases amongst Indonesians aged 25-34 and 35-49 years old

Analysing the support for each candidate by age shows Jokowi with strong leads amongst Indonesians aged 50+ years old although Prabowo has closed the gap for mid-aged Indonesians age 25-34 and 35-49 years old. Once again Prabowo’s appeal is strongest among younger Indonesians with the two candidates impossible to split for Indonesians aged 17-24 years old.
  • 17-24yr olds: Jokowi 50% (unchanged since mid-March) cf. Prabowo 50% (unchanged);
  • 25-34yr olds: Jokowi 53.5% (down 8.5%) cf. Prabowo 46.5% (up 8.5%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Jokowi 52.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Prabowo 47.5% (up 3.5%);
  • 50+yr olds: Jokowi 63.5% (up 6%) cf. Prabowo 36.5% (down 6%).

Women’s support increases for Prabowo in the weeks before the Presidential election

Analysing by Gender shows Prabowo has gained a significant amount of support amongst Women in the last few weeks, almost drawing level with Jokowi.

Women’s support for Prabowo has grown 8.5% to 48.5% in early April now just behind Jokowi on 51.5% (down 8.5%). However, support for Jokowi amongst men has increased 3.5% to 57% in early April while support for Prabowo is down 3.5% to 43%.

Legislature Voting Intention – April 2019

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support unchanged on 39% in early April although still holding a substantial lead over Gerindra, the party of Presidential opponent Prabowo now with 26% support, up 5% on mid-March.
Supporting PDI-P candidate Jokowi are coalition partners Golkar 7% (down 0.5% since mid-March), PKB 4.5% (unchanged), PPP 2.5% (down 0.5%), NasDem 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Hanura 0.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the PDI-P led coalition fell 1% to 55% since mid-March.

Supporting Gerindra candidate Prabowo are coalition partners Demokrat 7.5% (up 1.5%), PKS 5.5% (down 0.5%) and PAN 4% (up 0.5%). Support for the Gerindra led coalition is now at 43%, up 6.5% since mid-March.

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says despite a late swing to challenger Prabowo incumbent President Jokowi is set to be re-elected for a second five-year term as Indonesia’s President next week:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at next week’s Presidential and legislative elections show incumbent President Jokowi is set to be re-elected for a second term despite a late swing to Prabowo in recent weeks.

“President Jokowi has the support of 54.5% of Indonesian electors in early April, down 2% since the last Roy Morgan Poll for mid-March ahead of Prabowo on 45.5% (up 2%). Today’s result is little changed from the 2014 Indonesian Presidential Election when Jokowi won 53% of the votes compared to Prabowo’s 47%.

“It is Jokowi’s strength in his home province of Central Java as well as the surrounding provinces of East Java, Bali and the city of Yogyakarta that are the basis of Jokowi’s strong support and likely victory next week. Jokowi has the support of 70% of electors in Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta and Bali compared to only 30% support for Prabowo.

“Prabowo’s strength is concentrated in the capital of Jakarta and the surrounding provinces of West Java and Banten. Prabowo is supported by 60% of electors in these provinces compared to only 40% support for Jokowi. However, it doesn’t appear enough for the challenger to overcome Jokowi in next week’s Presidential election.

“It is true that Prabowo has closed the gap on Jokowi amongst key demographics including several age groups and amongst women over the last few weeks. However today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows that Jokowi still holds the edge amongst both genders and amongst Indonesians aged 25-34, 35-49 and 50+ years old. Only amongst young Indonesians is it a split decision with support for Jokowi and Prabowo tied again at 50% cf. 50% for 17-24 year olds.

“The Roy Morgan Poll has consistently shown support for Prabowo increasing during the election campaign however with under a week to go it appears time has run out for Prabowo to bridge the gap with President Jokowi set for victory next week.”

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”

Finding No. 7939 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted from mid-March 2019 through to early April 2019 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 1,224 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Just over 9.5% of electors in the Presidential poll and 15% of electors in the legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.

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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

Presidential Election

July 2014

December
2018

January

2019

February

2019

March
2019

April
2019

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

53

59.5

58

57

56.5

54.5

Prabowo Subianto

47

40.5

42

43

43.5

45.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

Joko Widodo’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Prof. Dr. K.H. Ma’rul Amin. Prabowo Subianto’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Sandiaga Uno.

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*

By Province/ Island*

Presidential
Candidates

Electors

*Jakarta
& West Java

East Java & Bali

Central Java & Yogyakarta

*S’thern Sumatra

*N’thern Sumatra

*Island of Sulawesi

*Island of Kalimantan

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

54.5

40

70

70

42.5

51.5

62

44.5

Prabowo Subianto

45.5

60

30

30

57.5

48.5

38

55.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Designations: Jakarta & West Java includes Banten; Southern Sumatra includes Southern Sumatra (Sumatera Selatan) and Lampung; Northern Sumatra includes Northern Sumatra (Sumatera Utara), West Sumatra (Sumatera Barat) and Riau. Island of Sulawesi includes Southern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Selatan) and Northern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Utara); Island of Kalimantan includes East Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), Southern Kalimantan (Kalimantan Selatan) and West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat).

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Gender & Age

Gender

Age

Presidential Candidates

Electors

Male

Female

17-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

54.5

57

51.5

50

53.5

52.5

63.5

Prabowo Subianto

45.5

43

48.5

50

46.5

47.5

36.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2