Back To Listing

President Jokowi re-elected as Consumer Confidence soars in 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2019 (n=1,300). 
In March 2019 before President Jokowi was re-elected for a second five year term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence was up 1.8pts to 161.3. This is 5pts higher than a year ago in March 2018 (156.3) and a significant 24.8pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.5.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence in March is up 5pts on a year ago and the increase has been driven by residents in the capital of Jakarta as well as other provinces of Indonesia’s largest island of Java. However, despite the strong overall increase, there are areas of Indonesia which now have lower Consumer Confidence than a year ago. Further details on Consumer Confidence by province and island below.

The increase in March is driven by more Indonesians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items and more confidence about personal financial situations.

Now 41% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 9% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing majority of 71% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In March, 92% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 7% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 4% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

An increasing majority of 63% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 33% (down 3ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2019 (n=1,300). 

Consumer Confidence up from a year ago driven by increases in Jakarta, Java & Sumatra

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region shows increases in Consumer Confidence in the capital of Jakarta, as well as in other areas of Java and the island of Sumatra compared to this time a year ago. However, Consumer Confidence in March 2019 is down on a year ago on the islands of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.

The areas with the biggest increase in Consumer Confidence from a year ago are the home provinces of the two Presidential candidates. Consumer Confidence in Prabowo’s home provinces of Jakarta and West Java is up 7.8pts to 154.0 while Consumer Confidence in Jokowi’s home provinces of Central Java and Yogyakarta has increased by 7.5pts to 162.0.

There was also an increase, of a more modest 2.8pts to 168.9, in the provinces of East Java and Bali.

Consumer Confidence has also increased significantly from a year ago in the provinces of Southern Sumatra up by 7pts to 157.7, and their counterparts in Northern Sumatra, up by 4pts to 170.6.

However, despite a decline of 6.6pts from a year ago, it is again the island of Sulawesi which has the highest Consumer Confidence of any region of Indonesia at 172.5 in March 2019. Against the trend of the majority of the archipelago the island of Kalimantan has also seen a decline in Consumer Confidence by 3pts from a year ago to 158.7 in March 2019.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Provinces & Islands: March 2018 cf. March 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2018 (n=2,146) & March 2019 (n=1,300).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased for a second straight month in March, up by 1.8pts to 161.3. Consumer Confidence is now up 5pts from a year ago and has averaged a very high 158.9 over the last 12 months.

“The high level of Consumer Confidence in Indonesia during the last year was a strong indicator that incumbent President Jokowi was set to be re-elected at last week’s Indonesian Presidential Election. The final Roy Morgan Poll of Indonesian electors correctly predicted Jokowi would be re-elected with a margin of nearly 10%: Jokwoi (54.5%) cf. Prabowo (45.5%). Although final results will not be released until May the early counts suggest a victory for Jokowi of around 10%.

“The strong performance of Consumer Confidence over the last year has been built on rising Consumer Confidence in key regions of Indonesia including Jakarta and the surrounding island of Java as well as Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra.

“Consumer Confidence in Jakarta & West Java increased by 7.8pts to 154 from a year ago and in Central Java & Yogyakarta Consumer Confidence increased by 7.5pts to 162 and is now above the national average in President Jokowi’s home provinces. Consumer Confidence in the provinces of Northern Sumatra increased by 7pts from a year ago to 157.7 and in the provinces of Southern Sumatra Consumer Confidence increased by 4pts to 170.6 in March 2019 compared to a year ago.

“To get the most out of Roy Morgan’s in-depth research into the trends in the Indonesian economy and society subscribe to the Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source which is the largest consumer database in Indonesia covering more than 30 industries, 150 product categories and over 1,500 plus brands in the world’s fourth largest country.”


The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,300 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in March throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia April 13/14, 2019 – 115.3) and New Zealand (March 2019 – 121.8) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0




About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2