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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 123.2 in April

Consumer confidence rose 1 point in April and sits near average levels.

Consumer confidence rose 1 point in April and sits near average levels.

  • Perceptions of current conditions rose 5 points, while the future conditions index fell 1 point.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item rose a solid 8 points.

Consumer confidence was a touch higher in April. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 1 point to 123, near its historical average. Better perceptions of the current situation drove the tick up, with the Current Conditions Index rising 5 points to 130, the highest level since the start of 2018. Meanwhile, the Future Conditions Index ticked down 1 point to 119.



Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation rose 2 points to a net 14% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 30% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 1 point.
  • A net 46% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, up 8 points.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 1 point to a net 9% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook fell 3 points to +18%.
  • By region, the South Island outperformed, with Canterbury up 5 points to 126 and the rest of the South Island up 10 points to 125. Auckland retained a 1-year high at 124.
  • House price inflation expectations lifted a tick to 2.8%, driven by higher expectations outside of Canterbury (1.8%) and Auckland (1.3%).
  • Inflation expectations lifted 0.3%pts to 4.0%.

Consumer confidence remains robust, holding onto a rebound from the lows of late-2018. The overall index remains around its historical average, defying housing market softness and global and domestic growth risks. Confidence about current conditions picked up sharply in April, and is flirting with post-GFC highs. This likely primarily reflects the strong labour market. A high proportion of people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. Indeed, this picked up sharply in April, supportive of household spending despite soft housing market activity. However, caution around the economic outlook has kept confidence about future conditions a little more subdued.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone. It continues to suggest that momentum in the economy has slowed considerably, but the composite has stabilised and even started to lift off its lows (figure 2). The recent pickup reflects the lift in consumer confidence regarding current conditions. The composite gauge is consistent with our GDP growth outlook: subdued in the near term (falling to 2% this year), before gradually building towards 3% over the next few years.


Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - April 2019.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2