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66% of Australians think the ALP will win Federal Election

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Electors were asked: ““Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win.

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”


ALP supporters are more confident of victory than L-NP supporters

ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win.

Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win.

Think Will Win – By Political Affiliation

Australian
Electors

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Ind./
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

66

81

47

84

64.5

48.5

L-NP

34

19

53

16

35.5

51.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100


Young Australians expect an ALP victory and more men than women

Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory at the Federal Election compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old.

Men are more convinced than women of an ALP win with 70.5% of men expecting an ALP win at this week’s Federal Election compared to 61.5% of women.

Think Will Win – By Gender & Age

Australian
Electors

Women

Men

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

66

61.5

70.5

80

74.5

65

61.5

59

L-NP

34

38.5

29.5

20

25.5

35

38.5

41

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


ALP most favoured for victory in Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT

Large majorities of electors in Victoria (75%), Tasmania (74%) and the ACT (73.5%) expect the ALP to win this week’s Federal Election and over two-thirds of South Australians (68.5%) expect an ALP victory this weekend.

Although closer, majorities of electors in Queensland (56.5%), Western Australia (61%) and New South Wales (64.5%) also expect the ALP to win the Federal Election.

Think Will Win – By States & Territories

Australian
Electors

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

ACT

NT

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

66

64.5

75

56.5

61

68.5

74

73.5

56.5

L-NP

34

35.5

25

43.5

39

31.5

26

26.5

43.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”

Finding No. 7980 – This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).


For further information:

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