This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Electors were asked: ““Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”
A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win.
This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Electors were asked: ““Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”
ALP supporters are more confident of victory than L-NP supporters
ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win.
Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win.
Think Will Win – By Political Affiliation
|
|
Australian
Electors
|
ALP
|
L-NP
|
Greens
|
Ind./
Others
|
Can’t say
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
66
|
81
|
47
|
84
|
64.5
|
48.5
|
|
L-NP
|
34
|
19
|
53
|
16
|
35.5
|
51.5
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Young Australians expect an ALP victory and more men than women
Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory at the Federal Election compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old.
Men are more convinced than women of an ALP win with 70.5% of men expecting an ALP win at this week’s Federal Election compared to 61.5% of women.
Think Will Win – By Gender & Age
|
|
Australian
Electors
|
Women
|
Men
|
18-24
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
66
|
61.5
|
70.5
|
80
|
74.5
|
65
|
61.5
|
59
|
|
L-NP
|
34
|
38.5
|
29.5
|
20
|
25.5
|
35
|
38.5
|
41
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
ALP most favoured for victory in Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT
Large majorities of electors in Victoria (75%), Tasmania (74%) and the ACT (73.5%) expect the ALP to win this week’s Federal Election and over two-thirds of South Australians (68.5%) expect an ALP victory this weekend.
Although closer, majorities of electors in Queensland (56.5%), Western Australia (61%) and New South Wales (64.5%) also expect the ALP to win the Federal Election.
Think Will Win – By States & Territories
|
|
Australian
Electors
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
ACT
|
NT
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
66
|
64.5
|
75
|
56.5
|
61
|
68.5
|
74
|
73.5
|
56.5
|
|
L-NP
|
34
|
35.5
|
25
|
43.5
|
39
|
31.5
|
26
|
26.5
|
43.5
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Electors were asked: ““Regardless of who you have or will vote for who do you THINK will win the Federal Election?”
Finding No. 7980 – This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on who electors think will win this week’s Federal Election was conducted via SMS over the last three days of May 14-16, 2019 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,004 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).
For further information:
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Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
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+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
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Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
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