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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 3.9pts to 119.3 in May

Consumer confidence fell 4 points in May back to November 2018 levels.

Consumer confidence fell 4 points in May back to November 2018 levels.

  • Both perceptions of current conditions fell and the future conditions index fell 4 points.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 3 points but remains at solid levels.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 4 points to 119, the lowest read in six months but fairly close to its historical average. The Current Conditions Index fell 4 points to 126, undoing much of its lift the previous month, while the Future Conditions Index also fell 4 points to 115.



Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation fell 4 points to a net 10% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 23% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 7 points.
  • Nonetheless, a much greater net 43% still think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 3 points.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 2 points to a net 7% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook fell 4 points to +14%.
  • By region, Wellington is leading the charge, up 6 points to 128. The least confident region is the North Island excluding Auckland and Wellington, down 7 points to 114.
  • House price inflation expectations eased slightly to 2.6%, driven by lower expectations in Wellington (down 1.7%pt to 2.7%). Auckland remains weakest at 1.9%.
  • Inflation expectations fell 0.4%pts to 3.6%.
Consumer confidence fell 4 points in May but remains off the lows of late- 2018. The overall index sits just below its historical average of 120. Within this, the current conditions index (126.2) sits well above confidence in future conditions (114.7). This is not unusual at this ripe stage of the business cycle.

Consumer confidence is holding up pretty well in the face of housing market softness in Auckland and Christchurch, and a cooling economy more broadly. This resilience likely primarily reflects the strong labour market – and now, markedly lower mortgage rates. A high proportion of people still think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which history suggests will be supportive of spending in the near term.


Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2019.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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