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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up to 161.8 after Jokowi’s re-election

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ May 2019 (n=1,280).
In May 2019 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased 1.8pts from April to 161.8. This is 4.8pts higher than a year ago in May 2018 (157.0) and a significant 25pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.8.

The increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence in May was up 4.8pts on a year ago. The increase from a year ago has been driven by Indonesians in higher household income quintiles with no improvement for the lowest quintile. Further details on Consumer Confidence by household income quintiles below.

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence (May 2019) compared to a month ago shows driving this month’s increase is more Indonesians expecting there to be ‘good times’ economically for Indonesia over the next 12 months.

Now 44% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 7% (down 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 69% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 2% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator for over four years since October 2014).

In May, 92% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 8% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 5% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’.

An unchanged majority of 64% of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 33% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ May 2019 (n=1,280).

Consumer Confidence up from a year ago although not for the lowest income quintile


Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by household income quintiles shows increases for the four highest income quintiles compared to a year ago but a slight decrease for the lowest quintile.

Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is highly correlated to household income quintile and the two largest increases in confidence compared to a year ago were for the two highest quintiles which also have the highest Consumer Confidence in May 2019.

Indonesians in the highest household income quintile now have Consumer Confidence of 173.8 in May 2019, up by 5.6pts on a year ago, while Consumer Confidence for the second highest household income quintile is now at 165, up by 7.8pts on a year ago.

Consumer Confidence for the second and third lowest household income quintiles has also increased over the last year but by slightly less than the overall national increase of 4.8pts. Consumer Confidence for the middle (third) quintile is up by 4.5pts to 163.3, and is above the national average, and is up by 4.3pts to 155.2 for the second lowest quintile.

In contrast to other household income quintiles the lowest quintile has not seen any improvement in Consumer Confidence compared to a year ago, dropping by 0.8pts to 150.4, and now with clearly the lowest Consumer Confidence of any quintile.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Household Income Quintiles: May 2018 cf. May 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ May 2018 (n=2,143) & May 2019 (n=1,280).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"In May Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased by 1.8pts on a month ago to 161.8 following the re-election of President Jokowi to a second five year term as President. The final election results were declared in mid-May although Jokowi was widely predicted as the winner after the Indonesian elections were held in early April.

“The final Roy Morgan Indonesian Poll of the election showed Jokowi receiving 54.5% of the vote compared to challenger Prabowo on 45.5% and accurately predicted Jokowi’s official winning margin which ended up just over 10%.

“President Jokowi was the clear favourite for re-election earlier in 2019 and comparing the trends in Indonesian Consumer Confidence over the last year shows solid increases in Consumer Confidence for the four highest household income quintiles and particularly the top two.

“Consumer Confidence for the top household income quintile is now at 173.8, up by 5.6pts on a year ago, and is now at 165 for the second highest quintile, up by 7.8pts on a year ago. The exception in terms of Consumer Confidence is the lowest quintile for which the measure declined by 0.8pts to 150.4 compared to a year ago.

“To get the most out of Roy Morgan’s in-depth research into the trends in the Indonesian economy and society subscribe to the Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source which is the largest consumer database in Indonesia covering more than 30 industries, 150 product categories and over 1,500 plus brands in the world’s fourth largest country.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,280 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in May throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia June 15/16, 2019 – 114.2) and New Zealand (May 2019 – 119.3) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0


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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2