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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 3.3pts to 122.6 in June

Consumer confidence rose 3 points in June to 123, above the historical average.

Consumer confidence rose 3 points in June to 123, above the historical average.

  • The Current Conditions Index rose 2 points and the Future Conditions Index lifted 4 points.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 3 points but remains at solid levels.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 3 points to 123, unwinding most of last month’s fall to sit a bit above its historical average. The Current Conditions Index rose 2 points to 128, while the Future Conditions Index rose 4 points to 119.



Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation lifted 5 points to a net 15% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 29% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 6 points.
  • A net 40% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 3.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 5 points to a net 12% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook rose 2 points to +16%.
  • By region, Wellington continues to lead the charge, unchanged at 128. The least confident region is the North Island excluding Auckland and Wellington, though it rose 5 points to 119.
  • Nonetheless this is the region with the strongest house price inflation expectations, up 0.3%pts to 3.4%. The various regions are quite tightly bunched around the national average of 3.1% (up 0.5%pt).
  • Inflation expectations rose 0.4%pts to 4.0%.
Consumer confidence rose 3 points in June to be above its historical average of 120. As has been the case for some time, the current conditions index (127.6) sits well above confidence in future conditions (119.3), though the latter rose more this month.

Consumer confidence has proven resilient in the face of housing market softness in Auckland and Christchurch. No doubt stronger housing markets elsewhere helped, along with the strong labour market and lower mortgage rates. Despite the clearly cooling economy, confidence in the future of the economy lifted. This will have helped support the high proportion of people still thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which will be supportive of spending in the near term.


Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - June 2019.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2