Real unemployment at 9.2% in June as tax cuts set to boost economy

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for June shows:
In June 1.25 million Australians were unemployed (9.2% of the workforce) with an additional 1.28 million (9.4%) now under-employed.

• The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, has increased year-on-year by 201,000 to 13,617,000. The increasing workforce was driven by an increase in both the numbers of employed people and unemployed people.

• Employment was up 118,000 to 12,363,000 in June 2019 and the rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 479,000 to 8,279,000. However, over the past year part-time employment has declined by 361,000 to 4,084,000;• Unemployment was up 83,000 on a year ago to 1,254,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) The unemployment rate is up by 0.5% to 9.2%;

• An additional 1,275,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) are under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 27,000 in a year (down 0.3%);

• Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for June is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2019 of 5.2%, although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 9.4% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.6%;

• Roy Morgan’s total unemployment and under-employment of 2,529,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) in June, an increase of 56,000 in a year (up 0.2%) seems large but the biennial ABS survey the ‘Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation’ last released in 2017 claims a comparable figure of 2.7 million Australians aged 18+ would like a job or to work more hours – including 1.1 million people the ABS said wanted a job but excluded from the Labour Force.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – June 2019. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment and under-employment in June of over 2.5 million presents the re-elected L-NP Government with a challenge and an opportunity:

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 633,274 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2019 and includes 3,803 face-to-face interviews in June 2019. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.

The Roy Morgan May employment estimates have been revised this month with the addition of a fifth weekend in May to the dataset which provides a more comprehensive view of employment conditions in May than was previously released.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2019)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2019)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.