Roy Morgan Research
September 03, 2019

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.4

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 8103
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Confidence gained 0.3% last week, its second straight weekly gain.

  • Financial conditions were mixed, with current finances down 3.3% after a strong rise in the prior week and future financial conditions gaining 1.3%. Both measures of financial conditions are above average.
  • Economic conditions were also mixed. Current economic conditions fell 2.7%, the fifth consecutive decline, while future economic conditions rose 3.8%. Both the sub-indices are below average.
  • The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ sub-index gained 1.7%. This follows a rise of 4% in the previous week. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations rose by 0.1ppt to 4%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“Confidence was up marginally last week despite some not-so-positive economic data. Reports on business investment and construction work done pointed to a very soft Q2 GDP report, 0.2% by our reckoning. Consumers’ views toward their own finances were down somewhat, but this drop follows the very strong gain in the prior week and still leaves sentiment about personal finances well above average. Consumers remain apprehensive about the economic outlook over the coming year. In our view, how the divergence between these two measures is closed will be a key determinant of consumer spending in the year ahead. A good piece of news for the RBA is the rise in inflation expectations after the four-week moving average dipped below 4% for a couple of weeks.”

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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