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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reverses to 112.3

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,018 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend October 5/6, 2019.

After gaining 4.2% in the previous reading, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 2.1% last week. All the subindices fell except the ‘time to buy a major household item’.

  • Financial conditions subindices were down significantly and have been volatile for the last few weeks. Current finances were down 4.7% while future finances lost 5.0%.
  • Current economic conditions fell 1.7%, while future economic conditions lost 1.1% after gaining 4.2% in the previous reading.
  • ‘Time to buy a household item’ continued to recover after falling to a 10-year low in recent weeks, although it remains below its long term average.
  • Inflation expectations inched higher by 0.1 ppt to 4.1%.

ANZ Senior Economist, Felicity Emmett, commented:
“Last week’s bounce in ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence wasn’t sustained and sentiment is now back below the long term average. Ongoing concerns about the medium term outlook are weighing down sentiment, although consumers continue to feel okay about their current financial circumstances. This divergence in thinking possibly explains the modest bounce in retail sales reported last week: consumers recognise the impact of tax and interest rate cuts on their budgets, but are worried about the outlook, and so unwilling to splash the cash. The RBA is likely to be disappointed about the inability for either confidence or spending to lift materially despite significant monetary and fiscal stimulus.”





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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2