Roy Morgan Research
February 11, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 107.8

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8268
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Confidence fell 0.6% last week, reversing a bit over half the prior week’s increase. This continues the recent sawtooth pattern. Confidence remains well below average.

  • In a repeat of last week’s pattern, there were largely oversetting moves within the sub-components of financial and economic conditions. ‘Current financial conditions’ dropped 3%, while ‘future financial conditions’ were up 3.8%. In a similar pattern, the 4.1% drop in ‘current economic conditions’ didn’t quite offset the 5.3% lift in ‘future economic conditions’.
  • ‘Time to buy a major household item’ fell 5%, to its lowest level since mid- December. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was unchanged at 4.1%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“Consumer confidence has displayed a sawtooth pattern in recent weeks, with offsetting moves in many of the components leading to a lack of overall direction. Last week’s upbeat assessment of the outlook by the RBA may have buoyed ‘future economic conditions’, which rose to their highest level since mid- November. ‘Future financial conditions’ also rose sharply, jumping to their highest level since early November. Sentiment around current conditions, though, was lower, as were views on whether it was ‘time to buy a major household item’. Heavy rain and floods in parts of the east coast and the coronavirus epidemic may have contributed to the weakness in these aspects of the survey. Overall, consumers are cautious, and it is difficult to see this lessening any time soon..”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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