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Nationwide L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,593 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020. A higher than usual 7% of electors can’t say who they support.

Support for the L-NP has dropped to 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-June according to telephone and online interviewing conducted over the weekends of June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 with a representative cross-section of 2,593 Australian electors.

L-NP support is down 2% points from mid-May although the Government has now held the two-party preferred lead for three months since lockdowns were enforced around Australia in late March.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence remains near decade highs at 124

In addition the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has continued at a near record high of 124 in mid-June, down 1pt since mid-May. Government Confidence has now been above 120 since early April – the longest run at such a high level since the last four months of 2010.

Now a majority of 53.5% (down 1% point since mid-May) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 29.5% (unchanged say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 42.5% (down 2% points since mid-May) but still well ahead of the ALP on 34.5% (up 1.5%).

Greens support is down 0.5% to 10.5% while support for One Nation is at 4% (up 0.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 0.5% to 8.5%.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

“The L-NP Government (50.5%) retains a narrow two-party preferred lead over the ALP (49.5%) ahead of next week’s Eden-Monaro by-election.The L-NP’s lead has slipped by 2% points from a month ago even as the COVID-19 pandemic has eased in much of Australia.

“Next week’s by-election is crucial as a win would increase the L-NP’s small majority in the House of Representatives to 78 of 151 seats. An L-NP win at the Eden-Monaro by-election would also be the first time a Government has won a by-election from the Opposition for 100 years since 1920. 

“Eden-Monaro has traditionally regarded as a ‘bellwether’ of the broader Australian electorate and was won by the party of Government at every Federal Election from 1972 (won by the ALP and Gough Whitlam) through to 2013 (won by the L-NP and Tony Abbott).

“However, this four decade streak ended in 2016 when popular former ALP Member Mike Kelly won the seat but the L-NP won the Federal Election under former PM Malcolm Turnbull. It is Kelly’s resignation in late April that prompted next week’s by-election.

“Playing on the minds of local electors will be the response of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the L-NP Government to the twin crises of 2020 – devastating bushfires in the summer and shortly after the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

“Both have had a huge impact on Eden-Monaro with large tracts of forests, and homes, destroyed during the summer and the economic lifeblood of the region – tourism – shut-down because of the dangers posed by the fires and the subsequent shut-down orders enforced across Australia.

“Scott Morrison was widely criticised for his handling of the bushfires but has redeemed himself and his Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and this is borne out by the huge surge in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating.

“Roy Morgan Government Confidence hit a record low of only 80 during the bushfires but staged a remarkable recovery as shutdowns were enforced in late March. Government Confidence has been above 120 since early April and is now at 124 in mid-June. This is the longest run of high Government Confidence above 120 since the height of the mining boom a decade ago in 2010.”

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54.5

29.5

125

16

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

53.5

29.5

124

17

100

Change

-1

-

-1pts

+1

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

73.5

14.5

159

12

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

75.5

13.5

162

11

100

Change

+2

-1

+3pts

-1

ALP

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

45

38

107

17

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

43.5

36.5

107

20

100

Change

-1.5

-1.5

-

+3

Greens

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

28.5

51

77.5

20.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

27.5

56.5

71

16

100

Change

-1

+5.5

-6.5pts

-4.5

Independents/Others

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

30.5

46

84.5

23.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

32.5

46.5

86

21

100

Change

+2

+0.5

+1.5pts

-2.5

Can’t say*

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54

22

132

24

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

44.5

24.5

120

31

100

Change

-9.5

+2.5

-12pts

+7

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,593 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020. A higher than usual 7% of electors can’t say who they support.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54.5

29

125.5

16.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

52.5

30.5

122

17

100

Change

-2

+1.5

-3.5pts

+0.5

Country Areas

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54

30

124

16

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54.5

28.5

126

17

100

Change

+0.5

-1.5

+2

+1

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

56.5

28.5

128

15

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54

33.5

120.5

12.5

100

Change

-2.5

+5

-75pts

-2.5

Victoria

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54

27.5

126.5

18.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

51

30

120.5

19

100

Change

-3

+2.5

-6pts

+1.5

Queensland

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

51

33

118

16

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

52

26.5

125.5

21.5

100

Change

+1

-6.5

+7.5pts

+5.5

WA

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

64

22.5

141.5

13.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

64

20

144

16

100

Change

-

-2.5

-2.5pts

+2.5

SA

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

47

36

111

17

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

55

30.5

124.5

14.5

100

Change

+8

-5.5

-13.5pts

-2.5

Tasmania

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

42

37.5

104.5

20.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

45

36

109

19

100

Change

+3

-1.5

+4.5pts

-1.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

55.5

26.5

129

18

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

53

28

125

19

100

Change

-2.5

+1.5

-4pts

+1

Men

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

53

32.5

120.5

14.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54

31.5

122.5

14.5

100

Change

+1

-1

+2pts

-

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

45

34

111

21

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

49.5

30

119.5

20.5

100

Change

+4.5

-4

+8.5pts

-0.5

35-49

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54.5

29

125.5

16.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

48.5

31.5

117

20

100

Change

-6

+2.5

-8.5pts

+3.5

50-64

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

54.5

30

124.5

15.5

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

56.5

31

125.5

12.5

100

Change

+2

+1

+1pts

-3

65+

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

64.5

23.5

141

12

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

60

26.5

133.5

13.5

100

Change

-4.5

+3

-7.5pts

+1.5

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093