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Consumer Confidence highest for L-NP supporters

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month.
Base: Australians electors aged 18+.

New research into the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index shows L-NP supporters have far higher Consumer Confidence in June at 103.3 than either ALP supporters (91.8) or Greens supporters (85.9).

In fact, the Consumer Confidence of L-NP supporters has been consistently higher than either ALP or Greens supporters over the last year following the unexpected victory of the L-NP at last year’s Federal Election.

Consumer Confidence for supporters of all three parties bottomed during the height of the national lockdown in April but the lowest Consumer Confidence for L-NP supporters, of 87.3 in April, was still higher than for Greens supporters during either of the last two months in both May and June.

Consumer Confidence for ALP supporters hit a low of only 73.0 in April, lower than for supporters of either the L-NP or Greens.

L-NP supporters have consistently been more confident than both ALP and Greens supporters across all five indicators of the index. The biggest contributors to the higher L-NP scores relate to views on the Australian economy and whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items.

L-NP supporters are far more confident about the long-term economic outlook

In June over a quarter of L-NP supporters (27.4%) expected ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to only 12.2% that expected ‘bad times’ – a positive differential of 15.4ppts.

In contrast only 15.6% of ALP supporters expected ‘good times’ compared to 18.5% that expected ‘bad times’ – a negative differential of 2.9ppts. Greens supporters are even more negative on the long-term economic outlook with only 11.9% expecting ‘good times’ and 24.8% expecting ‘bad times’.

It’s a ‘good time to buy major household items’ – according to L-NP supporters

In June far more L-NP supporters (44.4%) said now is a ‘good time to buy major household items’ than a ‘bad time to buy’ (29.4%) leading to a positive differential on this question of 15ppts.

Supporters of the ALP and Greens were more likely to have a negative view on whether it was a good or bad time to buy major household items.

Slightly more ALP supporters (36.3%) said it was a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items compared to 35.2% that said it was a ‘good time to buy’ – a negative differential of 1.1ppts.

For Greens supporters this was even more pronounced with 35% saying it was a ‘bad time to buy’ compared to only 28.4% that said it was a ‘good time to buy’ – a negative differential of 6.6ppts.

Supporters of all three parties are positive about their personal finances in 12 months

There is only one question for which supporters of all three parties hold a positive outlook and that relates to their personal financial situation this time next year.

In June, over a third of L-NP supporters (36.5%), ALP supporters (34.0%) and Greens supporters (34.1%) expected to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and under 20% of each expected to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan says supporters of the party in Government are generally more confident than the opposition and this is evident during the pandemic:

“L-NP supporters have maintained a consistently higher level of Consumer Confidence since last year’s election victory which came as a ‘shock’ to many media commentators who were convinced the ALP was set for victory.

“A year ago L-NP supporters had Consumer Confidence of 126.6 in July 2019 comapred to only 105.5 for ALP supporters and 104.7 for Greens supporters. Consumer Confidence for Greens supporters dipped below 100 soon after in September 2019 and has stayed there ever since as Australia faced a summer of bushfires.

“The summer bushfires had little impact on the Consumer Confidence of L-NP supporters however the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a steep drop from 118.5 in February to 94.5 in March and a low of 87.3 in April. However, since then Consumer Confidence has bounced back strongly for L-NP supporters and was in positive territory at 103.3 in June.

“In contrast, the Consumer Confidence of ALP supporters is at only 91.8 in June and even lower, at 85.9, for Greens supporters.

“The strong bounceback for L-NP supporters is due to strong confidence in three key indicators. L-NP supporters are confident about the performance of the Australian economy over the next five years that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items and that they will be financially better off this time next year.

“Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdowns more L-NP supporters have expected to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year than ‘worse off’ and more L-NP supporters have expected ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years than ‘bad times’ – neither indicator has ever entered negative territory for L-NP supporters.

“This is not the case for ALP supporters. In March and April ALP supporters had a negative view on all five indicators and even now only one indicator is in positive territory for either ALP or Greens supporters – that looking at the family financial situation this time next year.”

Consumer Confidence by Political Party Support (2019-2020)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.


Consumer Confidence Question 1: “Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?”

The graph charts the difference: % “Better-off” – % “Worse off” for supporters of each party.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.


Consumer Confidence Question 2: "This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?”

The graph charts the difference: % “Better-off” – % “Worse off” for supporters of each party.


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.



Consumer Confidence Question 3: "Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially or bad times?”

The graph charts the difference: % “Good times” – % “Bad times” for supporters of each party.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.


Consumer Confidence Question 4: "Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have good times during the next five years or we'll have bad times?”

The graph charts the difference: % “Good times” – % “Bad times” for supporters of each party.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.


Consumer Confidence Question 5: "Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?”

The graph charts the difference: % “Good time” – % “Bad time” for supporters of each party.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, July 2019 – June 2020, n= 50,505, average of 4,209 per month. Base: Australians electors aged 18+.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2