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L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,589 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 1% from a month ago) can’t say who they support.

Support for the L-NP has increased to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to the Morgan Poll over the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,589 Australian electors interviewed using a combination of telephone and online interviews.

L-NP support is up 1% point from mid-June as a second wave of COVID-19 has hit Victoria, and to a lesser extent New South Wales, over the last few weeks.

Support for the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is strongest in Queensland: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, WA: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, SA: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47% and NSW: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

However, the ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in both Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 43.5% (up 1% point since mid-June) and is now a full 10% ahead of the  ALP on 33.5% (down 1%).

Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.0% while support for One Nation is at 2.5% (down 1.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 1% to 9.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 9.5pts to 114.5 in July – dramatically down by 16pts to 104 in Victoria

In contrast to the improvement in political support for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined substantially over the last month, down 9.5pts to 114.5 in mid-July. Government Confidence is now at it’s lowest since mid-March before the COVID-19 pandemic had fully impacted on Australia.

Now just under half, 49% (down 4.5% since mid-June) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 34.5% (up 5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

There are large differences between States when it comes to Government Confidence. Unsurprisingly, Government Confidence has fallen most drastically in Victoria, down 16pts to only 104.

Three States are clustered around the national average with Government Confidence in Queensland at 115 just ahead of New South Wales on 113.5 and Tasmania on 111.

However, Western Australia maintains a very high rating of 136 in July ahead of South Australia on 130.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says a new wave of COVID-19 is now hitting Australia and early forecasts of a quick ‘snapback’ for the economy have receded:

“The L-NP Federal Government (51.5%) has increased its lead over the ALP (48.5%) over the last month as a new wave of COVID-19 has impacted heavily on Victoria with the Melbourne metropolitan area now in a second lockdown – and mandatory mask wearing now enforced.

“The new wave of COVID-19 has prompted other States to keep their borders closed to Victorians and NSW has closed the border to its southern neighbour for the first time in a century.

“Support for the L-NP is highest in its traditional strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia but the Government has also enjoyed an increase in support in Victoria compared to a month ago – though it still trails the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.

“The renewed threat posed by  COVID-19 has dealt a blow to hopes of a quick ‘snap-back’ of the Australian economy. The Government support packages JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been extended for an extra six months until March 2021, albeit at reduced rates, as international travel remains closed and State borders within Australia prevent easy travel between States.

“In a sign of the tough economic times brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic Treasurer Josh Frydenberg this week unveiled Australia’s largest Federal Budget deficit since World War II of $86 billion for the 2019/20 fiscal year and a forecast Budget deficit blow out to more than $184 billion for the current fiscal year.

“Only a few months ago before COVID-19 came along the Federal Government was forecasting a Federal Budget surplus for 2019/20 of $5 billion. This would have been Australia’s first Federal Budget surplus since the Global Financial Crisis but the severe economic contraction brought on by COVID-19 means Government spending is set to remain at elevated levels for years to come.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,589 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 1% from a month ago) can’t say who they support.

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

53.5

29.5

124

17

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

34.5

114.5

16.5

100

Change

-4.5

+5

-9.5pts

-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

75.5

13.5

162

11

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

67

20

147

13

100

Change

-8.5

+6.5

-15pts

+2

ALP

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

43.5

36.5

107

20

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

41

39.5

101.5

19.5

100

Change

-2.5

+3

-5.5pts

-0.5

Greens

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

27.5

56.5

71

16

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

26.5

58

68.5

15.5

100

Change

-1

+1.5

-2.5pts

-0.5

Independents/Others

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

32.5

46.5

86

21

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

28.5

56.5

72

15

100

Change

-4

+10

-14pts

-6.5

Can’t say*

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

44.5

24.5

120

31

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

46

26.5

119.5

27.5

100

Change

+1.5

+2

-0.5pts

-3.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

52.5

30.5

122

17

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

35

113.5

16.5

100

Change

-4

+4.5

-8.5pts

-0.5

Country Areas

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54.5

28.5

126

17

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49.5

33

116.5

17.5

100

Change

-5

+4.5

-9.5pts

+0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54

33.5

120.5

12.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

35.5

113.5

15.5

100

Change

-5

+2

-7pts

+3

Victoria

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

51

30

120

19

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

43.5

39.5

104

17

100

Change

-7.5

+9.5

-16pts

-2

Queensland

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

52

26.5

125.5

21.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

47.5

32.5

115

20

100

Change

-4.5

+6

-10.5pts

-1.5

WA

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

64

20

144

16

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

60.5

24.5

136

15

100

Change

-3.5

+4.5

-8pts

-1

SA

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

55

30.5

124.5

14.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

57

27

130

16

100

Change

+2

-3.5

+5.5pts

+1.5

Tasmania

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

45

36

109

19

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

38

111

13

100

Change

+4

+2

+2pts

-6

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

53

28

125

19

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

32

116.5

19.5

100

Change

-4.5

+4

-8.5pts

+0.5

Men

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

54

31.5

122.5

14.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49.5

36.5

113

14

100

Change

-4.5

+5

-9.5pts

-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

49.5

30

119.5

20.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

46

36

110

18

100

Change

-3.5

+6

-9.5pts

-1.5

35-49

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

48.5

31.5

117

20

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

45.5

37

108.5

17.5

100

Change

-3

+5.5

-8.5pts

-2.5

50-64

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

56.5

31

125.5

12.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

35

113.5

16.5

100

Change

-8

+4

-12pts

+4

65+

May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020

64.5

23.5

141

12

100

June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020

60

26.5

133.5

13.5

100

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

57

28.5

128.5

14.5

100

Change

-3

+2

-5pts

+1

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093