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PM Jacinda Ardern maintains ‘crushing’ lead over new National leader Judith Collins

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – July 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 899.

In July support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 53.5% down 1% since June, but still more than double the support for National on 26.5%, down 0.5%, with just over a month to go before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

Interviewing for this survey in July encompassed the period before and after Judith Collins became the new leader of National in mid-July after former leader Todd Muller’s shock resignation after less than two months in the role.

The early indications are that the new leader has had a negligible impact on support for National although a full month of interviewing in August will provide a clearer picture in the run-up to next month’s election.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”


Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition remains strong at 63% in July

In July 63% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 2% since June. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 33%, up 1% since June.

  • Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was unchanged at only 1.5% in July, and more importantly down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First are again below the party vote threshold of 5% in July and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.

  • Greens support was at 8%, down 1% since June, but still up 1.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.

  • Importantly, support for Act NZ continues to increase and was at 6.5% in July, up 1.5% since June and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002 when the party scored over 7% of the vote and won 9 seats in Parliament.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 1.5% in July and the Maori Party was at 0.5% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating down, but still near highs at 152.5 in July

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 152.5 in July, down 1pt from 153.5 in June.

The majority (71.5%) of New Zealand electors (down 0.5% since June) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19% (up 0.5%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was also barely changed in July at 104.3, down 0.2pts from June (104.5).

The stability in both indicators follows four months of large changes from March to June that drove Roy Morgan Government Confidence to a record high in April while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating hit its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in the same month at only 84.8.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to be re-elected with an increased majority next month as National turn to yet another new leader in mid-July to try and revive their fortunes:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s adept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is still paying dividends with the Labour Party set to substantially increase its majority at next month’s election.

“Support for the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party was at 53.5% in July and still more than double that of National on 26.5%, now led by new leader Judith Collins. Collins became National’s third leader in 2020 in mid-July and today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows there has been no immediate bounce in support for National after their second change of leader this year.

“Labour’s coalition partners NZ First are in danger of missing out on a return to Parliament as their support has stagnated at only 1.5% for a second straight month. Support for NZ First is down 5.7% on their result at the 2017 NZ Election and may signal the end of the long political career of leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Peters was first elected to the Parliament more than forty years ago before current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was born.

“The biggest beneficiaries of the demise of NZ First are set to be Act NZ which has again increased its support in July, up 1.5% to 6.5%. Act NZ are set to achieve their best result at a New Zealand election since 2002 when the party received 7.1% of the vote and won nine seats.

“A strong performance from the right-wing Act NZ at this year’s election will strengthen the hand of David Seymour, and his new deputy leader Brooke van Velden, and place further pressure on National leader Judith Collins to rally support on the centre-right.”



New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

New Zealand Party Vote


New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

New Zealand Coalition Support


Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

New Zealand GCR


Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

NZ First

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

TOP**

Maori Party**

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

13.35

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

4.26

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

10.38

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.72

5.30

39.10

1.51

n/a

2.12

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

4.07

6.72

44.93

3.65

n/a

2.39

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

6.59

11.06

47.31

1.07

n/a

1.43

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

8.66

10.70

47.04

0.69

n/a

1.32

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

7.20

6.27

44.45

0.50

2.44

1.18

1.07

ROY MORGAN POLL

Oct 2-15, 2017

31

6.5

11

46

0.5

2

1.5

1.5

Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017

39.5

5

10

40.5

0.5

2

1.5

1

Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017

37

8

10

40.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

1

Jan 2-28, 2018

42.5

6

9

39

0.5

1.5

1

0.5

2020

January 2020

40

2.5

10.5

40

3

0.5

1.5

2

February 2020

40.5

5

10.5

37

3.5

1.5

1

1

March 2020

42.5

3

11.5

37

3.5

1

0.5

1

April 2020

55

2.5

7

30.5

2.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

2.5

7

26.5

3.5

1

1.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

1.5

9

27

5

1.5

1

0.5

July 2020 53.5 1.5 8 26.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 2
*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, NZ First, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)

Election, September 23, 2017*

50.36

44.95

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Oct 2-15, 2017

48.5

46.5

NZ First under leader Winston Peters decides to support Labour’s Jacinda Ardern for PM 

Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017

54.5

41

Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017

55

41

2020

January 2020

53

43

February 2020

56

40.5

March 2020

57

40.5

April 2020

64.5

33

National elects new leader Todd Muller to replace Simon Bridges – May 22, 2020

May 2020

66

30

June 2020

65

32

July 2020 63 33
National elects new leader Judith Collins to replace Todd Muller - July 14, 2020
*At the 2017 New Zealand Election the National-led Government returned only two parties (National & Act NZ) who received 44.95% of the vote compared to 50.36% that went to the three Parliamentary Opposition Parties: Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

June 8-21,
2015

June 29-July 12,
2015

Aug 3-16,
2015

Aug 31-Sep 13,
2015

Sep 28-Oct 11,
2015

Oct 26- Nov 8,
2015

Nov 23-Dec 6,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

62.5

51

54

58

53

60

59.5

Wrong direction

27

33

34

29.5

31

28.5

31

Roy Morgan GCR#

135.5

118

120

128.5

122

131.5

128.5

Can’t say

10.5

16

12

12.5

16

11.5

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

Jan 4-17,
2016

Feb 1-14,
2016

Feb 29-Mar 13,
2016

Apr 4-17,
2016

May 2-15,
2016

May 30-June 12,
2016

Jul 4-17,
2016

Aug 8-21,
2016

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

59.5

56.5

61

57.5

59

54.5

57.5

58

Wrong direction

28

28.5

29

30.5

29

34

30.5

30.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

131.5

128

132

127

130

120.5

127

127.5

Can’t say

12.5

15

10

12

12

11.5

12

11.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

Sep 5-18,
2016

Oct 10-23,
2016

Nov 7-20,
2016

Nov 28-Dec 11,
2016

Jan 3-16,
2017

Jan 30-Feb 12,
2017

Feb 27-Mar 12,
2017

April 3-16,
2017

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

52

55.5

65

58.5

63

63.5

61.5

58

Wrong direction

35

29

24

27.5

23

23.5

25.5

29

Roy Morgan GCR#

117

126.5

141

131

140

140

136

129

Can’t say

13

15.5

11

14

14

13

13

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

May 1-14,
2017

May 29-Jun 11,
2017

Jun 26-Jul 9,
2017

July 31-Aug 13,
2017

Aug 28-Sep 10,
2017

Oct 2-15,
2017

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

60.5

61.5

63

62.5

62

58.5

Wrong direction

27

27

23.5

23.5

25

27.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

133.5

134.5

139.5

139

137

131

Can’t say

12.5

11.5

13.5

14

13

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)

Oct 30-Nov 12,
2017

Nov 27-Dec 10,
2017

January
2020

February
2020

March
2020

April
2020

May
2020

June
2020

July
2020 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

66.5

68

58

59

60.5

77

76

72

71.5

Wrong direction

20

18

29.5

27

25.5

14

17.5

18.5

19

Roy Morgan GCR#

146.5

150

128.5

132

135

163

158.5

153.5

152.5

Can’t say

13.5

14

12.5

14

14

9

6.5

9.5

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 100

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