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More New Zealanders Expect Unemployment To Rise Over Coming 12 Months

Confidence in employment fell sharply in New Zealand from 2004. Forty-four percent (up a substantial 15%) of New Zealanders expect unemployment will rise in the next 12 months, while 56% believe it will fall or stay the same as 2005 (19% fall, 37% stay the same/unable to say).

For the first time since 1998, the proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to increase over the coming year (44%) is higher than Australia (up 4% to 40%). In Australia 60% (down 4%) believe the number of unemployed will fall or stay the same in 2006 (21% fall, 39% stay the same/unable to say).

Gary Morgan says:

“The proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to rise over the coming 12 months rose substantially in 2005 (up 15% to 44%). However on a personal note 84% of New Zealanders believe their present job is safe and 71% think that if they were to become unemployed they would find a new job fairly quickly.”

Employees in New Zealand and Australia continue to be optimistic about their jobs, with 84% (down 1%) of employed New Zealanders and 83% (up 4% since December 2004) of employed Australians saying they feel confident that their present job is safe, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Only 13% (unchanged) of New Zealanders and 15% (down 4%) of Australians believe there is a chance of unemployment (3% in New Zealand and 2% in Australia were unable to say).

When respondents employed full or part time were asked “If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”, 71% (up 2%) of New Zealanders and 62% (down 5%) of Australians said they felt they would find a new job quickly. Twenty-three percent (down 1%) of New Zealanders thought it might take longer to find a job, compared with 34% (up 6%) of Australians.

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in New Zealand and Australia on employment in the year ahead.

For the New Zealand survey, a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,094 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 15-27, 2005. For the Australian survey, an Australia-wide cross-section of 653 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 2/3, 2005.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

 

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in New Zealand (Australia) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

In New Zealand , 44% (up 15% since December 2004) expect unemployment to increase, while 37% (down 5%) expect there will be no change and 19% (down 10%) expect it to fall.

Two-in-five Australians (up 4% to 40%) expect unemployment to increase in the next twelve months, 39% (down 1%) believe there will be no change and 21% (down 3%) expect unemployment to fall.

 

 

Expect

Unemployment

to . . .

Increase

Fall

No change/

Can't say

 

%

%

%

New Zealand:

     

Aug '91

88

6

6

Nov '91

76

11

13

Nov '92

52

25

23

Nov '93

38

33

29

Nov '98

68

14

18

Nov '99

32

31

37

Dec 2000

33

30

37

Dec 2001

36

27

37

Dec 2002

37

31

32

Dec 2003  35  28  37 
Dec 2004 29 29 42
Nov 2005 44 19 37

Australia:

     

1975

64

21

15

1976

60

19

21

1977

64

20

16

1978

73

10

17

1979

69

10

21

1980

67

11

22

Dec '82

88

5

7

Oct '83

54

23

23

Nov '84

44

30

26

Nov '85

49

27

24

Nov '86

63

13

24

Dec '87

59

16

25

Nov '88

48

22

30

Nov '89

50

18

32

Nov '90

81

10

9

Aug '91

65

17

18

Nov '91

62

22

16

Jul '92

54

24

22

Nov '92

55

22

23

Nov '93

44

27

29

Nov '94

32

42

26

Nov '95

49

23

28

Jul '97

47

25

28

Nov '97

45

26

29

Nov '98

53

20

27

Nov '99

38

29

33

Dec 2000

50

20

30

Dec 2001

60

16

24

Dec 2002

44

19

37

Dec 2003  39  22  39 
Dec 2004 36 24 40
Nov 2005 40 21 39

 

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents surveyed who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

In New Zealand , 84% (down 1% since December 2004) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 3% (up 1%) don't know.

Over four-in-five Australians (up 4% to 83%) who work full or part-time believe their present job is safe, while 15% (down 4%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know

 

 

Present

Chance of

Don't

Job Security

job safe

unemployment

know

 

%

%

%

New Zealand:

     

Aug '91

54

41

5

Nov '91

60

36

4

Nov '92

66

29

5

Nov '98

73

20

7

Nov '99

76

21

3

Dec 2000

80

17

3

Dec 2001

84

15

1

Dec 2002

81

14

5

Dec 2003 84 14 2
Dec 2004 85 13 2
Nov 2005 84 13 3

Australia:

     

1975

76

21

3

1976

78

17

5

1977

82

15

3

1978

79

19

2

1979

77

20

3

1980

73

23

4

Dec '82

72

25

3

Oct '83

79

18

3

Nov '84

82

17

1

Nov '85

79

18

3

Nov '86

80

17

3

Dec '87

80

18

2

Nov '88

81

18

1

Nov '89

82

17

1

Nov '90

70

28

2

Aug '91

70

28

2

Nov '91

69

27

4

Jul '92

69

29

2

Nov '92

65

32

3

Nov '93

73

25

2

Nov '94

74

22

4

Nov '95

74

23

3

Jul '97

73

24

3

Nov '97

77

21

2

Nov '98

81

16

3

Nov '99

74

25

1

Dec 2000

75

20

5

Dec 2001

75

22

3

Dec 2002

79

20

1

Dec 2003 78 20 2
Dec 2004 79 19 2
Nov 2005 83 15 2

 

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Those surveyed who work full-time or part-time were also asked: “If you became unemployed , do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly - or do you think it might take longer?”

Seventy-one percent of New Zealander workers (up 2% since December 2004) think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 23% (down 1%) believe it might take longer and 6% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.

In Australia, 62% (down 5%, since December 2004 ) of workers think that if they became unemployed they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 34% (up 6%) believe it might take longer to find a new job and 4% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.

 

Finding a New Job if 
Unemployed

New job 
found quickly

May take 
longer

Wouldn't look/ 
Don't know

 

%

%

%

New Zealand:

     

Aug '91

30

58

12

Nov '91

35

54

11

Nov '92

39

50

11

Nov '98

50

40

10

Nov '99

64

29

7

Dec 2000

51

39

10

Dec 2001

58

31

11

Dec 2002

67

26

7

Dec 2003 66 28 6
Dec 2004 69 24 7
Nov 2005 71 23 6

Australia:

     

1975

57

33

10

1976

57

33

10

1977

55

35

10

1978

50

41

9

1979

54

36

10

1980

50

39

11

Dec '82

44

46

10

Oct '83

51

41

8

Nov '84

61

33

7

Nov '85

58

34

8

Nov '86

61

30

9

Dec '87

65

30

5

Nov '88

69

26

5

Nov '89

68

26

6

Nov '90

49

45

6

Aug '91

39

53

8

Nov '91

39

53

8

Jul '92

38

53

9

Nov '92

39

54

7

Nov '93

50

43

7

Nov '94

60

33

7

Nov '95

58

32

10

Jul '97

52

42

6

Nov '97

58

36

6

Nov '98

55

38

7

Nov '99

63

30

7

Dec 2000

59

33

8

Dec 2001

54

39

7

Dec 2002

66

29

5

Dec 2003 64 33 3
Dec 2004 67 28 5
Nov 2005 62 34 4