Confidence in employment fell sharply in New Zealand from 2004. Forty-four percent (up a substantial 15%) of New Zealanders expect unemployment will rise in the next 12 months, while 56% believe it will fall or stay the same as 2005 (19% fall, 37% stay the same/unable to say).
For the first time since 1998, the proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to increase over the coming year (44%) is higher than Australia (up 4% to 40%). In Australia 60% (down 4%) believe the number of unemployed will fall or stay the same in 2006 (21% fall, 39% stay the same/unable to say).
Gary Morgan says:
“The proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to rise over the coming 12 months rose substantially in 2005 (up 15% to 44%). However on a personal note 84% of New Zealanders believe their present job is safe and 71% think that if they were to become unemployed they would find a new job fairly quickly.”
Employees in New Zealand and Australia continue to be optimistic about their jobs, with 84% (down 1%) of employed New Zealanders and 83% (up 4% since December 2004) of employed Australians saying they feel confident that their present job is safe, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Only 13% (unchanged) of New Zealanders and 15% (down 4%) of Australians believe there is a chance of unemployment (3% in New Zealand and 2% in Australia were unable to say).
When respondents employed full or part time were asked “If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”, 71% (up 2%) of New Zealanders and 62% (down 5%) of Australians said they felt they would find a new job quickly. Twenty-three percent (down 1%) of New Zealanders thought it might take longer to find a job, compared with 34% (up 6%) of Australians.
These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in New Zealand and Australia on employment in the year ahead.
For the New Zealand survey, a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,094 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 15-27, 2005. For the Australian survey, an Australia-wide cross-section of 653 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 2/3, 2005.
For further information:
Gary Morgan
|
Office (03) 9224 5213
|
Mobile 0411 129 094
|
Home (03) 9419 3242
|
Michele Levine
|
Office (03) 9224 5215
|
Mobile 0411 129 093
|
Home (03) 9817 3066
|
1. Unemployment
Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in New Zealand (Australia) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”
In New Zealand , 44% (up 15% since December 2004) expect unemployment to increase, while 37% (down 5%) expect there will be no change and 19% (down 10%) expect it to fall.
Two-in-five Australians (up 4% to 40%) expect unemployment to increase in the next twelve months, 39% (down 1%) believe there will be no change and 21% (down 3%) expect unemployment to fall.
Expect
Unemployment
to . . .
|
Increase
|
Fall
|
No change/
Can't say
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
New Zealand:
|
|
|
|
Aug '91
|
88
|
6
|
6
|
Nov '91
|
76
|
11
|
13
|
Nov '92
|
52
|
25
|
23
|
Nov '93
|
38
|
33
|
29
|
Nov '98
|
68
|
14
|
18
|
Nov '99
|
32
|
31
|
37
|
Dec 2000
|
33
|
30
|
37
|
Dec 2001
|
36
|
27
|
37
|
Dec 2002
|
37
|
31
|
32
|
Dec 2003 |
35 |
28 |
37 |
Dec 2004 |
29 |
29 |
42 |
Nov 2005 |
44 |
19 |
37 |
Australia:
|
|
|
|
1975
|
64
|
21
|
15
|
1976
|
60
|
19
|
21
|
1977
|
64
|
20
|
16
|
1978
|
73
|
10
|
17
|
1979
|
69
|
10
|
21
|
1980
|
67
|
11
|
22
|
Dec '82
|
88
|
5
|
7
|
Oct '83
|
54
|
23
|
23
|
Nov '84
|
44
|
30
|
26
|
Nov '85
|
49
|
27
|
24
|
Nov '86
|
63
|
13
|
24
|
Dec '87
|
59
|
16
|
25
|
Nov '88
|
48
|
22
|
30
|
Nov '89
|
50
|
18
|
32
|
Nov '90
|
81
|
10
|
9
|
Aug '91
|
65
|
17
|
18
|
Nov '91
|
62
|
22
|
16
|
Jul '92
|
54
|
24
|
22
|
Nov '92
|
55
|
22
|
23
|
Nov '93
|
44
|
27
|
29
|
Nov '94
|
32
|
42
|
26
|
Nov '95
|
49
|
23
|
28
|
Jul '97
|
47
|
25
|
28
|
Nov '97
|
45
|
26
|
29
|
Nov '98
|
53
|
20
|
27
|
Nov '99
|
38
|
29
|
33
|
Dec 2000
|
50
|
20
|
30
|
Dec 2001
|
60
|
16
|
24
|
Dec 2002
|
44
|
19
|
37
|
Dec 2003 |
39 |
22 |
39 |
Dec 2004 |
36 |
24 |
40 |
Nov 2005 |
40 |
21 |
39 |
2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand
Those respondents surveyed who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”
In New Zealand , 84% (down 1% since December 2004) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 3% (up 1%) don't know.
Over four-in-five Australians (up 4% to 83%) who work full or part-time believe their present job is safe, while 15% (down 4%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know
|
Present
|
Chance of
|
Don't
|
Job Security
|
job safe
|
unemployment
|
know
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
New Zealand:
|
|
|
|
Aug '91
|
54
|
41
|
5
|
Nov '91
|
60
|
36
|
4
|
Nov '92
|
66
|
29
|
5
|
Nov '98
|
73
|
20
|
7
|
Nov '99
|
76
|
21
|
3
|
Dec 2000
|
80
|
17
|
3
|
Dec 2001
|
84
|
15
|
1
|
Dec 2002
|
81
|
14
|
5
|
Dec 2003 |
84 |
14 |
2 |
Dec 2004 |
85 |
13 |
2 |
Nov 2005 |
84 |
13 |
3 |
Australia:
|
|
|
|
1975
|
76
|
21
|
3
|
1976
|
78
|
17
|
5
|
1977
|
82
|
15
|
3
|
1978
|
79
|
19
|
2
|
1979
|
77
|
20
|
3
|
1980
|
73
|
23
|
4
|
Dec '82
|
72
|
25
|
3
|
Oct '83
|
79
|
18
|
3
|
Nov '84
|
82
|
17
|
1
|
Nov '85
|
79
|
18
|
3
|
Nov '86
|
80
|
17
|
3
|
Dec '87
|
80
|
18
|
2
|
Nov '88
|
81
|
18
|
1
|
Nov '89
|
82
|
17
|
1
|
Nov '90
|
70
|
28
|
2
|
Aug '91
|
70
|
28
|
2
|
Nov '91
|
69
|
27
|
4
|
Jul '92
|
69
|
29
|
2
|
Nov '92
|
65
|
32
|
3
|
Nov '93
|
73
|
25
|
2
|
Nov '94
|
74
|
22
|
4
|
Nov '95
|
74
|
23
|
3
|
Jul '97
|
73
|
24
|
3
|
Nov '97
|
77
|
21
|
2
|
Nov '98
|
81
|
16
|
3
|
Nov '99
|
74
|
25
|
1
|
Dec 2000
|
75
|
20
|
5
|
Dec 2001
|
75
|
22
|
3
|
Dec 2002
|
79
|
20
|
1
|
Dec 2003 |
78 |
20 |
2 |
Dec 2004 |
79 |
19 |
2 |
Nov 2005 |
83 |
15 |
2 |
3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed
Those surveyed who work full-time or part-time were also asked: “If you became unemployed , do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly - or do you think it might take longer?”
Seventy-one percent of New Zealander workers (up 2% since December 2004) think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 23% (down 1%) believe it might take longer and 6% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.
In Australia, 62% (down 5%, since December 2004 ) of workers think that if they became unemployed they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 34% (up 6%) believe it might take longer to find a new job and 4% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.
Finding a New Job if
Unemployed
|
New job
found quickly
|
May take
longer
|
Wouldn't look/
Don't know
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
New Zealand:
|
|
|
|
Aug '91
|
30
|
58
|
12
|
Nov '91
|
35
|
54
|
11
|
Nov '92
|
39
|
50
|
11
|
Nov '98
|
50
|
40
|
10
|
Nov '99
|
64
|
29
|
7
|
Dec 2000
|
51
|
39
|
10
|
Dec 2001
|
58
|
31
|
11
|
Dec 2002
|
67
|
26
|
7
|
Dec 2003 |
66 |
28 |
6 |
Dec 2004 |
69 |
24 |
7 |
Nov 2005 |
71 |
23 |
6 |
Australia:
|
|
|
|
1975
|
57
|
33
|
10
|
1976
|
57
|
33
|
10
|
1977
|
55
|
35
|
10
|
1978
|
50
|
41
|
9
|
1979
|
54
|
36
|
10
|
1980
|
50
|
39
|
11
|
Dec '82
|
44
|
46
|
10
|
Oct '83
|
51
|
41
|
8
|
Nov '84
|
61
|
33
|
7
|
Nov '85
|
58
|
34
|
8
|
Nov '86
|
61
|
30
|
9
|
Dec '87
|
65
|
30
|
5
|
Nov '88
|
69
|
26
|
5
|
Nov '89
|
68
|
26
|
6
|
Nov '90
|
49
|
45
|
6
|
Aug '91
|
39
|
53
|
8
|
Nov '91
|
39
|
53
|
8
|
Jul '92
|
38
|
53
|
9
|
Nov '92
|
39
|
54
|
7
|
Nov '93
|
50
|
43
|
7
|
Nov '94
|
60
|
33
|
7
|
Nov '95
|
58
|
32
|
10
|
Jul '97
|
52
|
42
|
6
|
Nov '97
|
58
|
36
|
6
|
Nov '98
|
55
|
38
|
7
|
Nov '99
|
63
|
30
|
7
|
Dec 2000
|
59
|
33
|
8
|
Dec 2001
|
54
|
39
|
7
|
Dec 2002
|
66
|
29
|
5
|
Dec 2003 |
64 |
33 |
3 |
Dec 2004 |
67 |
28 |
5 |
Nov 2005 |
62 |
34 |
4 |