More New Zealanders Expect Unemployment To Rise Over Coming 12 Months

Confidence in employment fell sharply in New Zealand from 2004. Forty-four percent (up a substantial 15%) of New Zealanders expect unemployment will rise in the next 12 months, while 56% believe it will fall or stay the same as 2005 (19% fall, 37% stay the same/unable to say).

For the first time since 1998, the proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to increase over the coming year (44%) is higher than Australia (up 4% to 40%). In Australia 60% (down 4%) believe the number of unemployed will fall or stay the same in 2006 (21% fall, 39% stay the same/unable to say).

Gary Morgan says:

“The proportion of New Zealanders expecting unemployment to rise over the coming 12 months rose substantially in 2005 (up 15% to 44%). However on a personal note 84% of New Zealanders believe their present job is safe and 71% think that if they were to become unemployed they would find a new job fairly quickly.”

Employees in New Zealand and Australia continue to be optimistic about their jobs, with 84% (down 1%) of employed New Zealanders and 83% (up 4% since December 2004) of employed Australians saying they feel confident that their present job is safe, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Only 13% (unchanged) of New Zealanders and 15% (down 4%) of Australians believe there is a chance of unemployment (3% in New Zealand and 2% in Australia were unable to say).

When respondents employed full or part time were asked “If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”, 71% (up 2%) of New Zealanders and 62% (down 5%) of Australians said they felt they would find a new job quickly. Twenty-three percent (down 1%) of New Zealanders thought it might take longer to find a job, compared with 34% (up 6%) of Australians.

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in New Zealand and Australia on employment in the year ahead.

For the New Zealand survey, a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,094 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 15-27, 2005. For the Australian survey, an Australia-wide cross-section of 653 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 2/3, 2005.

For further information:

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in New Zealand (Australia) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

In New Zealand , 44% (up 15% since December 2004) expect unemployment to increase, while 37% (down 5%) expect there will be no change and 19% (down 10%) expect it to fall.

Two-in-five Australians (up 4% to 40%) expect unemployment to increase in the next twelve months, 39% (down 1%) believe there will be no change and 21% (down 3%) expect unemployment to fall.

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents surveyed who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

In New Zealand , 84% (down 1% since December 2004) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 3% (up 1%) don't know.

Over four-in-five Australians (up 4% to 83%) who work full or part-time believe their present job is safe, while 15% (down 4%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Those surveyed who work full-time or part-time were also asked: “If you became unemployed , do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly - or do you think it might take longer?”

Seventy-one percent of New Zealander workers (up 2% since December 2004) think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 23% (down 1%) believe it might take longer and 6% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.

In Australia, 62% (down 5%, since December 2004 ) of workers think that if they became unemployed they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 34% (up 6%) believe it might take longer to find a new job and 4% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.