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New Zealand (73%), Brazil (71%) & Australia (66%) Most Positive about 2010 While Croatia (57%), Bosnia (47%) and Serbia (44%) Most Worried

A recent Roy Morgan International survey conducted in conjunction with the Gallup International Association survey in 33 countries worldwide finds. In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on November 11-22, 2009. In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 16-29, 2009.

A recent Roy Morgan International survey conducted in conjunction with the Gallup International Association survey in 33 countries worldwide finds:

Better or Worse year in 2010:

Sixty-six per cent of Australians (up 17% in 12 months) believe 2010 will be a better year than 2009, while 18% (up 1%) think it will be the same or don’t know and only 16% (down 18%) think it will be worse.

New Zealanders are in fact the most optimistic about 2010 of all 33 countries surveyed with 73% (up a large 29%) expecting a better year, with just 12% (down 4%) expecting the same or don’t know and only 15% (down 25%) expecting a worse year.

Around the world, just behind New Zealand as the most optimistic countries expecting 2010 to be a better year than 2009 are Brazil (71%), Russia (66% — up a large 24%), Australia (also 66%) and China (64%, up 11%). Of Australia’s closest allies the Americans (50%, up 12%) are more positive about the year ahead than those in the United Kingdom (41%, up 19%) — although both have enjoyed strong rises from a year ago.

In contrast in only 12 of the 33 countries surveyed do pessimists exceed optimists, led by Croatia in which 57%, up 1% expect 2010 to be a worse year than 2009, and followed by neighbouring Eastern European countries Bosnia-Herzegovina (47%, up 3%), Serbia (44%, down 9%), Albania (44%) and Romania (43%, up 4%).

Economic prosperity or Economic difficulty in 2010:

Majorities of New Zealanders (65%, up 31%) and Australians (56%, up 20%) expect 2010 to be the same economically as 2009 or don’t know. Encouragingly, more Australians (27%, up 15%) and New Zealanders (21%, up 10%) expect 2010 to be a year of economic prosperity compared to only 17% (down 35%) of Australians and 14% (down 41%) of New Zealanders that expect 2010 to be a year of economic difficulty.

In terms of economic prosperity the most optimistic country in 2010 is clearly Brazil (65%) — the only country in which a majority of respondents expect economic prosperity in 2010. Other countries with pluralities expecting economic prosperity in 2010 are China (49%, up 8%), Venezuela (42%, up 20%) and war-torn Iraq and Afghanistan (both 39%).

Australia’s most important allies are significantly lower and clearly split about how they regard the economic situation in 2010 with 28% (up 11%) of Americans expecting a year of economic prosperity while even more, 32% (down 22%) expect a year of economic difficulty. Residents of the United Kingdom are less optimistic with only 12% (up 6%) expecting a year of economic prosperity while 30% (down 37%) expect a year of economic difficulty.

In only 8 of 33 countries surveyed do majorities of respondents expect economic difficulty in 2010, led by Croatia (57%, unchanged), Bosnia-Herzegovina (54%, up 10%), Israel (54%), Bulgaria (51%, down 3%) and France (51%)

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan International survey conducted in association with the Gallup International Association shows that people around the world have grown far more positive about the New Year than was the case just over a year ago in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

“In the 24 countries surveyed in both of the last two years — 18 are more positive about the New Year than a year ago. Only 6 are less positive. The most positive countries are New Zealand (73%, up 29%), Brazil (71%), Australia (66%, up 17%), Russia (66%, up 24%) and China (64%, up 11%) — all countries with clear majorities expecting 2010 to be a ‘Better year’ than 2009.

“The survey results show that countries in Eastern Europe continue to have the most difficulties with high numbers of people in Croatia (57%, up 1%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (47%, up 3%), Serbia (44%, down 9%), Albania (44%) and Romania (43%, up 4%) expecting 2010 to be a ‘Worse year’ than 2009.”

 

In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on November 11-22, 2009.

In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 16-29, 2009.

 

1. Next Year - Better or Worse Than This Year

Respondents were asked:  “As far as you're concerned, do you think next year will be better or worse than this year?"

New Zealanders are the most optimistic about 2010 with 73% (up a large 29%) expecting a better year, 12% (down 4%) expecting the same or don’t know and 15% (down 25%) expecting a worse year.

Australians are also optimistic about 2010 with 66% (up 17%) expecting a better year compared to 18% (up 1%) expecting the same or don’t know and 16% (down 18%) expecting a worse year.

Around the world the large developing nations that many know as the “BRIC” nations are amongst the most positive with Brazil (71%), Russia (66%, up 24%) and China (64%, up 11%) expecting 2010 to be a better year than 2009. Other nations with a majority of respondents expecting 2010 to be a better year are Canada (53%, up 22%) and Afghanistan (52%).

 

Expect a Better Year in…

Better

Same/

Don't Know

Worse

 

‘89

‘90

‘91

‘92

‘93

‘94

‘95

‘96

‘97

‘98

‘99

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘03

'04

‘05

‘06

‘07

‘08

‘09

2010

2010

2010

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

New Zealand

*

56

41

33

58

59

61

*

*

*

62

56

62

65

63

59

60

59

65

57

44

73

12

15

Brazil

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

71

22

7

Russia +

54

37

18

21

29

29

20

27

27

41

15

27

33

52

31

30

39

31

42

39

42

66

24

10

Australia

Better

Same/Don’t Know

Worse

47

22

31

43

22

35

33

18

49

54

20

26

42

22

36

60

22

18

65

19

16

53

29

18

*

*

*

50

28

22

55

25

20

49

30

21

46

33

21

53

21

26

51

16

33

68

17

15

61

22

17

49

22

29

47

25

28

53

23

24

49

17

34

66

18

16

China

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

70

75

73

*

53

64

23

13

Canada

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

59

57

60

50

31

53

38

9

Afghanistan

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

69

45

*

*

52

38

10

Iraq

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

49

33

38

*

50

31

19

USA

61

49

48

61

61

64

*

45

51

54

*

62

50

52

64

69

65

51

40

32

38

50

29

21

Colombia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

66

48

49

25

26

Venezuela

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

51

57

57

53

29

44

34

22

Ecuador

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

29

11

32

20

14

21

24

*

*

*

*

44

29

27

United Kingdom

46

36

43

45

33

35

*

47

53

52

42

32

36

41

41

45

36

42

47

41

22

41

34

25

Azerbaijan

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

41

30

29

Bahrain

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

41

39

29

32

Germany #

29

22

25

20

12

27

37

41

35

34

46

44

44

36

22

30

25

29

25

28

29

37

43

20

Iceland

31

39

38

33

32

43

55

43

41

46

39

47

45

43

47

29

29

35

34

29

4

35

50

15

Macedonia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

57

24

45

49

40

42

40

34

46

20

France

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

30

47

45

37

37

33

27

39

39

*

29

47

24

Bosnia-Herzegovina

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

44

45

41

38

47

27

27

27

38

28

45

38

28

27

26

47

South Korea

62

56

43

39

35

45

47

49

27

16

24

32

17

25

33

30

14

26

23

*

14

26

59

15

Malaysia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

59

70

55

46

44

53

55

45

37

37

*

23

57

20

Pakistan

*

*

*

*

*

*

34

42

*

41

47

59

37

43

47

41

45

40

32

29

9

23

48

29

Bulgaria

*

*

*

44

40

43

44

46

24

37

29

25

20

22

15

19

21

15

26

22

17

23

42

35

Italy

48

59

43

46

31

39

48

47

39

45

45

44

43

37

27

27

28

27

23

16

15

21

45

34

Serbia †

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

33

*

38

65

46

32

33

22

9

34

25

16

21

35

44

Austria

22

23

22

19

14

17

23

14

13

16

23

12

15

16

12

12

13

*

15

15

22

20

59

21

Japan

27

24

23

21

24

17

22

21

21

16

18

20

17

11

9

14

16

20

19

21

13

20

59

21

Romania

*

*

*

*

*

*

31

34

61

31

16

17

44

27

35

39

49

29

32

35

21

20

37

43

Albania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

48

42

*

31

*

20

36

44

Czech Republic

*

*

*

*

*

*

27

31

22

18

20

27

31

29

30

16

25

29

22

12

14

19

43

38

Croatia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

45

30

-

45

27

30

37

*

37

32

33

17

15

28

57

Israel

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

53

51

39

373

*

11

47

42

* Not surveyed. + U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992. # West Germany surveyed until 1989 & United Germany surveyed since 1990. † Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 & 2002

2. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Respondents were then asked: “Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?”

Leading the way as countries with the highest economic expectations for 2010 are large developing countries Brazil (65%) and China (49%, up 8%), followed by Venezuela (42%, up 20%), Iraq & Afghanistan (both 39%) and Russia (35%, up 17%), Colombia (35%, up 2%) and Azerbaijan (35%).

Eastern European countries Croatia (57%, unchanged), Bosnia-Herzegovina (54%, up 10%) are the countries most likely to expect 2010 to be characterised by economic difficulty closely followed by Israel (54%), France (51%) and fellow Eastern European country Bulgaria (51%, down 3%).

Majorities of New Zealanders (65%, up 31%) and Australians (56%, up 20%) expect 2010 to be the same economically as 2009 or don’t know. However, more Australians (27%, up 15%) and New Zealanders (21%, up 10%) expect 2010 to be a year of economic prosperity than those Australians (17%, down a large 35%) and New Zealanders (14%, down an even larger 41%) that expect 2010 to be a year of economic difficulty.

 

Economic Expectations for the Year……..

 

 

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

 

Prosperity

Difficulty

Prosperity

Difficulty

Prosperity

Difficulty

Prosperity

Difficulty

Prosperity

Difficulty

Prosperity

Same/

Don’t know

Difficulty

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Brazil

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

65

26

9

China

56

9

64

8

65

5

*

*

41

25

49

33

18

Venezuela

43

26

58

23

62

16

57

20

22

45

42

38

20

Iraq

*

*

42

12

28

40

26

25

*

*

39

42

19

Afghanistan

*

*

45

14

36

17

*

*

*

*

39

40

21

Russia +

27

26

18

26

26

17

21

19

18

57

35

36

29

Azerbaijan

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

35

35

30

Colombia

*

*

*

*

*

*

47

16

33

34

35

35

30

Iceland

14

17

9

21

12

15

6

44

3

91

34

38

28

Bahrain

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

25

40

31

35

34

Canada

25

16

22

20

19

19

32

22

11

53

28

42

30

USA

31

24

21

31

21

26

15

45

17

54

28

40

32

Australia

23

18

16

29

11

31

16

30

12

52

27

56

17

Ecuador

17

38

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

27

36

37

South Korea

9

62

20

36

10

51

*

*

8

64

26

55

19

Macedonia

26

36

34

32

34

20

33

27

27

31

25

51

24

New Zealand

17

12

12

26

16

13

18

25

11

55

21

65

14

Pakistan

40

17

29

26

31

20

27

30

9

47

20

52

28

Albania

35

22

33

34

*

*

17

34

*

*

18

39

43

Malaysia

60

12

41

16

38

23

32

28

*

*

16

56

28

Bosnia-Herzegovina

20

38

20

56

32

29

34

36

30

44

16

30

54

Japan

10

29

16

20

14

14

8

39

4

59

13

60

27

Romania

32

16

18

30

19

37

21

27

10

50

13

37

50

Bulgaria

12

23

8

39

14

45

12

41

7

54

13

36

51

United Kingdom

13

26

16

27

17

24

15

34

6

67

12

58

30

Israel

31

22

37

23

21

20

25

32

*

*

12

34

54

Czech Republic

15

35

19

31

16

33

9

52

7

50

11

47

42

Italy

11

37

9

39

9

44

6

52

3

62

10

49

41

Germany #

6

48

15

40

15

36

14

39

3

74

10

40

50

Serbia †

11

50

8

47

23

27

12

34

10

61

9

41

50

France

17

33

12

40

22

24

17

41

*

*

9

40

51

Croatia

*

*

26

34

23

32

22

25

8

57

9

34

57

Austria

4

34

*

*

6

24

9

21

3

72

8

59

33

*Not surveyed. + U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992. # West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990. † Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                   Office +61 3 9224 5213    Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242

Michele Levine:               Office +61 3 9224 5215    Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.