ABS Changes to areas and population estimates


November 2017 Summary:  


Newly revised population adjustments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will be incorporated by Roy Morgan in Single Source data from November 2017 onwards.  

Some population differences are noticeable and will result in changes to estimates of readership, product consumption and other data.  

Previously released data will not be amended. Phasing in of the new ABS population changes will minimise their impact.  

Most noticeable population changes have occurred with:  

  • Increases in Melbourne, Sydney & Brisbane and in the 25-34 age group.
  • Decreases in Perth and in the country areas of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
  • Small decreases in the Male 14-24 and 50-64 age groups.  


Application of the ABS Labour Force Survey population adjustments to Roy Morgan Single Source Weighting.

Background: 

The November 2017 edition of the Labour Force Survey - 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia - published by the ABS 14/12/2017 included revised population benchmarks from the 2016 Census. The ABS revises the population benchmarks used in the Labour Force Survey every five years following the Census of Population and Housing; this is a preliminary revision with the final revision to be undertaken in December 2018. 

Roy Morgan population estimates are calculated on trends in ABS published Statistical Area 2 (SA2) population estimates, supported by other ABS published information including the Labour Force Survey. We have carefully reviewed the revised population estimates and will be incorporating changes resulting from this ABS revision into the November 2017 processing of Roy Morgan Single Source.  

In incorporating the revised population benchmarks from the ABS Labour Force Survey, we can report that the new national population estimate for people 14+ has increased by approximately 61,900 from 20,193,000 people in October 2017 to 20,254,900 people in November 2017, up 0.3%.  

Roy Morgan will not be revising already published figures. These changes will have only a minimal initial impact as only two months out of twelve in the next quarterly report will be weighted according to the revised figures. There will then be a progressive - but still small - effect as an increasing proportion of the 'latest twelve months' is based on the new figures.  

Male population benchmarks have been revised upward by approximately 19,600 men to 9,954,000 (up 0.2%) with the female population increasing by 42,400 to 10,300,900 (up 0.4%). Benchmarks for younger age groups have generally decreased with those under 25 decreasing by approximately 4,400 people (down 0.1%). In contrast, middle age groups such as those between 25-49 increased by 60,500 (up 0.7%).  

At the capital city level, population benchmarks for Melbourne increased by 94,300 (up 2.3%), whilst Sydney increased by 49,600 (up 1.1%), Brisbane increased by 22,600 (up 1.1%) and Perth decreased by 28,300 (down 1.7%).

In Victoria country a decrease in population of 260 was marginal whilst in New South Wales the population of the remainder of the State (including the ACT) decreased by 37,800 (down 2.4%) to result in an overall increase in New South Wales of 11,800, to 6,846,200 (up 0.2%). Queensland country decreased by 14,500 (down 0.7%) to result in an overall increase in Queensland of 8,100, to 4,028,900 (up 0.2%). Western Australia country decreased by 24,200 (down 5.6%) to result in an overall decrease in Western Australia of 51,500 (down 2.5%).

These new projections apply to Roy Morgan Single Source data relating to November 2017 and following months.