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New Zealand Labour/Greens lead by over 20% points in March with women’s support for Labour underpinning the big lead

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

The Labour/Greens government support is down 1% point to 57.5% in March. However, support for the Labour Party was up 0.5% points to 45.5% in March while support for the Greens dropped 1.5% points to 12%.

In a worrying sign for the main opposition party support for the National Party dropped 6% points to 23% in March. National is now a large 22.5% points behind Labour – the largest gap since last year’s election when National trailed Labour by a massive 24.4% points.

National’s loss has been the right-wing Act NZ’s gain. Act NZ now has the support of 11% of electors, up by 3.5% points from February. This is a record high level of support for Act NZ beating the previous record of 10.5% set in November 2020 following last year’s election. Support for the Maori Party is unchanged at 1% in March.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 924 electors during March. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4.5% (up 0.5% points) didn’t name a party.


Labour/Greens (57.5%) maintain big lead over opposition National/Act NZ/Maori (35%)

In March 57.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, down 1% point on February. The governing parties are over 20% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 35%, down 2.5% points since February.

A small minority of 7.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament. This is around the same level of support (7.7%) that parties outside Parliament attracted at last year’s election. Of the parties outside Parliament, New Zealand First was up 1% point to 2.5% in March and The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up 1% point to 2%.


New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops to 12 month low of 135.5 (down 14pts)

The COVID-19 induced honeymoon may finally be on the wane for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern as Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged 14pts to 135.5 in March – now at its lowest since just before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 135 a year ago in March 2020. 

In March a decreased majority of 61.5% of New Zealand electors (down 8% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just over a quarter, 26% (up 6% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


‘Gender gap’ gives Labour and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern a big advantage

Analysing voting intentions by gender reveals where Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies. A clear majority of 54% of women support Labour compared to only 36% of men – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 18% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party.

In contrast, men are more likely to support the Greens than women (14.5% cf. 9.5%).

There are also significant ‘gender gaps’ for the opposition parties with National supported by over a quarter of men (25.5%) compared to only around a fifth of women (20.5%). In addition nearly one-in-seven men (14%) support Act NZ compared to only 8.5% of women.


Women favour Labour/Greens over National/Act NZ/Maori Party by greater than a 2:1 margin

Overall the ‘gender gap’ gives a huge advantage to the Labour/Greens government. Nearly two-thirds of women support Labour/Greens (63.5%) compared to less than a third that support the opposition parties National/Act NZ/Maori Party (30.5%).

In contrast a bare majority of 50.5% of men support the Labour/Greens government while just over two-fifths support the opposition parties National/Act NZ/Maori Party (40.5%).


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 144 for Women compared to 127 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 65% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 58% of men and only 21% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 31% of men.

Overall this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 144 for Women compared to only 127 for men – a gap of 17 points.


Party vote analysis by Gender

Total

Men

Women

%

%

%

Labour

45.5

36

54

Greens

12

14.5

9.5

Labour/Greens

57.5

50.5

63.5

National

23

25.5

20.5

Act NZ

11

14

8.5

Maori Party

1

1

1.5

National/Act NZ/ Maori Party

35

40.5

30.5

Others

7.5

9

6

Total

100

100

100

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

Right Direction

61.5

58

65

Wrong Direction

26

31

21

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

135.5

127

144

Can’t say

12.5

11

14

Total

100

100

100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the long-awaited travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia is finally set to be launched in the next few weeks with quarantine-free travel between the two neighbours set to provide a boon to holidaymakers in both countries:

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced earlier this week that New Zealand would open its borders to quarantine free travel with Australia on April 19 and the announcement has certainly come at a good time for both countries.

Australia accounts for around 40% of all visitors to New Zealand in a given year and in 2019 there were more visitors from New South Wales alone (533,000) than any other single country – even more than China (407,000). The pent-up demand in Australia for some international travel has seen inquiries about a holiday in New Zealand ‘explode’ in the last few days. 

“On the political front support for the Labour/Greens governing coalition was down by 1% at 57.5% in March with Labour up 0.5% to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 12%. This result strengthens the lead of the Government over the opposition National/Act NZ/Maori with support at 35% (down 2.5%). Support for National dropped 6% to 23% in March with this support moving to Act NZ (up 3.5% to 11%), NZ First (up 1% to 2.5%) and The Opportunities Party (up 1% to 2%). 

“A special analysis of voting trends by gender shows just how firmly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Labour are preferred by New Zealand’s women. A majority of 54% of women support the Labour Party compared to only 36% of men – a massive gap of 18% points.

“Men are more likely than women to support all three of the other major parties including the opposition National (25.5% cf. 20.5%) and Act NZ (14% cf. 8.5%) and also Labour’s governing coalition partner the Greens (14.5% cf. 9.5%).

“However, the ‘gender gap’ the Labour Party enjoys amongst women far exceeds those of the other major parties and support for the Labour/Greens governing coalition at 63.5% of women is more than double the support women give to the opposition National/Act NZ/Maori at only 30.5% - a gap in favour of Labour/Greens of 33% points.

“The large advantage the Labour Party enjoys with women provides the ‘firm ballast’ which underpins PM Jacinda Ardern’s leadership and popularity. If the opposition National is to regain the support it has lost over the last year it has to find a way to connect with the women of New Zealand that it hasn’t been able to do since January 2020 – when both parties were locked at 40% support.”


New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition


Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence


Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.


Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

March 2020

42.5

11.5

37

3.5

0.5

1

3

1

April 2020

55

7

30.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

March 2021

45.5

12

23

11

1

2

2.5

3

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.


Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

2020

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

March 2021

57.5

35

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).