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Opposition parties National and Act NZ close the gap on Labour-Greens as support for Act NZ hits a record high

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government dropped 1.5% points to 49.5% in July – the lowest for the Government since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Support for the Labour Party was up 1% point to 39.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 10%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since last year’s election.

The governing parties are now just 5% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 44.5%, up 1% point since June. This is the highest level of support for the Parliamentary Opposition since October 2019 and the closest they’ve been to the Government since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.

Support for National was virtually unchanged at 29%, down 0.5% points, while the big mover was Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to a record high 13%. This is the first time since 2002 that Act NZ has gained a higher level of support than the Greens. Support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%.

A small minority of 6% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party up 1% point to a record high 3%, support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2% in July.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 945 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed an unchanged 4.5% didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 3pts to pandemic low of 121 in July

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3pts in July to 121 – the lowest it has been since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.

In July a reduced majority of 55.5% (down 1.5% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to over a third, 34.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – the highest figure for this indicator since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down slightly by 1pt to 113.1 in July but is still well above the corresponding Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 100.7 on July 24/25, 2021 as that country battles a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Sydney.

Massive ‘Gender gap’ as Women favour Labour-Greens and men favour National-Act NZ

Analysing voting intentions by gender reveals where Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies.

A clear majority of 58.5% of Women support either Labour (46.5%) or the Greens (12%) compared to only 40.5% of men supporting either Labour (32.5%) or the Greens (8%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 18% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among Women.

In fact a majority of men support the Parliamentary opposition with 52.5% supporting either National (32.5%), Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to only 36.5% of Women supporting either National (25.5%), Act NZ (8.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 130 for Women compared to 112 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 59% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 52% of men and only 29% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 40% of men.

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 130 for Women compared to only 112 for men – a gap of 18 points.

Party vote analysis by Gender

Total

Men

Women

%

%

%

Labour

39.5

32.5

46.5

Greens

10

8

12

Labour/Greens

49.5

40.5

58.5

National

29

32.5

25.5

Act NZ

13

17.5

8.5

Maori Party

2.5

2.5

2.5

National/Act NZ/ Maori Party

44.5

52.5

36.5

Others

6

7

5

Total

100

100

100

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

Right Direction

55.5

52

59

Wrong Direction

34.5

40

29

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

121

112

130

Can’t say

10

8

12

Total

100

100

100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says a huge ‘gender gap’ has opened up in NZ politics with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-Greens Government enjoying the support of 58.5% of Women but a majority of 52.5% of men supporting the Parliamentary Opposition:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the Labour-led Government has the support of 49.5% of New Zealand electors with support for the Labour Party at 39.5% and a further 10% supporting the Greens.

“Support for the Government is down 1.5% points on June and is the lowest support for the Labour-led Government since coming to power in October 2017. The Parliamentary Opposition is now supported by 44.5% of electors with support split between National (29%), Act NZ (13%) and the Maori Party (2.5%).

“However, the top-line results don’t tell the full story and there is a large difference between who Women and men support. Women’s support for Prime Minister Ardern’s Government (58.5%) remains strong with high support for Labour (46.5%) and the Greens (12%).

“In contrast, a majority of men support the Parliamentary Opposition (52.5%) with nearly a third supporting National (32.5%) and one-in-five supporting either Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%).

“Overall, the ‘gender gaps’ are significant with 58.5% of Women supporting Labour-Greens compared to only 40.5% of men – a ‘gender gap’ of 18.5% points. This gap is slightly larger than the advantage men give to the grouping of National-Act NZ-Maori Party which is supported by 52.5% of men and 36.5% of Women – a ‘gender gap’ of 16.5% points.

“The ‘gender split’ is currently working in favour of the Government with support from Women for Prime Minister Ardern’s Government holding up and support on the centre-right being increasingly split between National and the libertarian-minded Act NZ – which has now reached a record high result of 13% in July.

“The slow pace of New Zealand’s vaccine rollout isn’t helping with only 13% of the population fully vaccinated and just over 1.8 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines so far administered and New Zealand’s international borders set to remain closed until at least early 2022.

“This is a stark contrast to the scenes from the UK over the last few weeks as the country celebrated it’s so-called ‘Freedom Day’ with nearly 90% of British adults receiving at least one vaccine dose and around 70% of adults now fully vaccinated.

“The slow rate of the vaccine rollout is also a significant factor in the Government’s decision to suspend the travel bubble with Australia for the next two months following a large outbreak of COVID-19 in Sydney. Although the decision is necessary given the risks of the highly contagious Delta variant entering the country it will nevertheless disrupt the travel plans of tens of thousands of New Zealanders hoping to ‘hop across the ditch’.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

January 2020

40

10.5

40

3

1.5

0.5

2.5

2

February 2020

40.5

10.5

37

3.5

1

1.5

5

1

March 2020

42.5

11.5

37

3.5

0.5

1

3

1

April 2020

55

7

30.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

March 2021

45.5

12

23

11

1

2

2.5

3

April 2021

41.5

13.5

29.5

9

2.5

0.5

1

2.5

May 2021

45

11

28.5

9

1.5

1.5

2

1.5

June 2021

38.5

12.5

29.5

11.5

2.5

2

1.5

2

July 2021

39.5

10

29

13

2.5

3

2

1

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

March 2021

57.5

35

April 2021

55

41

May 2021

56

39

June 2021

51

43.5

July 2021

49.5

44.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).