Roy Morgan Research
January 24, 2022

Australian unemployment drops to 8.5% in December as the workforce participation rate increased in the lead-up to Christmas, but under-employment up as Omicron surges in community

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 8894
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The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.25 million Australians were unemployed in December, down 78,000 on November (8.5% of the workforce), but a further 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, up 218,000 (up 1.4% points).

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.25 million Australians were unemployed in December, down 78,000 on November (8.5% of the workforce), but a further 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, up 218,000 (up 1.4% points).

  • Workforce increased by 196,000 to near record 14.71 million in December:

The workforce in December was 14,713,000 (up 196,000 from November) – comprised of 13,461,000 employed Australians (up 274,000) and 1,252,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 78,000). It is important to understand that the workforce participation rate of Australians aged 14+ (69.4%) increased before Christmas and is now 2.3% points higher than it was prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (67.1%) with more Australians now both employed and unemployed than pre-pandemic.

  • Employment in December increased to a record high of 13.46 million:

Australian employment increased 274,000 to 13,461,000 in December with full-time employment increasing by 28,000 to 8,817,000, its highest since June 2021 – before the outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in Sydney. Part-time employment was up by 246,000 to 4,644,000.

  • Unemployment dropped in December as full-time and part-time employment increased:

1,252,000 Australians were unemployed (8.5% of the workforce), down 78,000 from November with fewer people looking for full-time work (down 25,000 to 557,000) and a significant drop in those looking for part-time work, down 53,000 to 695,000 as employment in part-time work increased by 246,000 – as mentioned above.

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021):

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for December is over 4% points higher than the ABS estimate for December 2021 of 4.2%

However, the ABS figure for December counts as employed an additional 38,700 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’ and 46,300 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘other reasons’ – such as being forced out of work by mandatory lockdowns or forced isolation due to catching COVID-19 or being a close contact of a confirmed case.
If these 85,000 non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for December increases to 659,000 (4.8%). The ABS also claims there are 918,000 Australians (6.6%) under-employed for a total of over 1.5 million unemployed or under-employed (11.4% of the workforce) – an estimate which is still way under the latest Roy Morgan unemployment and under-employment estimate of 18.2%.

• Under-employment increased in December as part-time employment also increased:
In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 218,000 (up 1.4% points) from November. In total 2.68 million Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, an increase of 140,000 on November.

Compared to February 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in December 2021 there were over 200,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+0.9% points) even though overall employment (13,461,000) which is now 589,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the surge in the Omicron strain of COVID-19 since early December has played havoc with Australian employment markets over the past month:

Block Quote

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for December show unemployment was down 0.7% points to 8.5% – it’s lowest since immediately prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (8.3%). However, there was a substantial increase in under-employment in December, up 1.4% points to 9.7%.

“The contrasting moves in unemployment and under-employment point to the complex moves going on in Australia’s employment markets during December, which has continued into January, with the surge in cases of COVID-19 driven by the highly infectious Omicron strain of the virus.

“Since early December almost two million Australians have been infected with the Omicron strain and this has forced millions of workers into 7-14 days of isolation, as well as forcing millions of close contacts of confirmed cases into isolation as well. Long queues for PCR tests and delayed results of those tests have meant many people have been forced to spend an extended period in isolation despite not in the end testing positive for the virus.

“In December overall employment increased 274,000 to 13,461,000 – a new record high above that reached in June 2021 (13,374,000) just before the outbreak of the Delta strain sent over half of Australia into extended lockdowns.

“The increase in employment in December in the lead-up to Christmas comprised a small increase in full-time employment, up 28,000 to 8,817,000, and a large increase in part-time employment, up 246,000 to 4,644,000. The isolation of many staff who have been unable to work, since the emergence of the Omicron strain in early December, has forced many businesses to hire part-time staff on reduced hours to fill gaps.

“So even though many people who are fully employed have been spending time at home unable to work these labour market dynamics have led to a significant rise in part-time employment which flows through to a higher level of under-employment – now at its highest since January 2021 (10.0%).

“The impact of the Omicron strain on the employment markets has increased in January as the virus spread around most of the country after initially being prevalent only in NSW. This is likely to mean the early effects we’ve seen in December’s employment figures are set to intensify.

“Looking forward there are hopes that the surge in cases of the Omicron strain we’ve seen is set to subside over the next few weeks. However, as long as a large share of Australians are isolating due to catching the virus, or working from home to avoid catching the virus, there will be out-sized impacts on many businesses – such as retailers and other service industry businesses in Capital City CBDs.”

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Unemployed or ‘Under -employed’* Unemployed Unemployed looking for ‘Under-employed’*
Full-time Part-time
2021 ‘000 % ‘000 % ‘000 ‘000 ‘000 %
Jan-Mar 2021 2,971 20.6 1,750 12.1 717 1,033 1,222 8.5
Apr-Jun 2021 2,688 18.3 1,398 9.5 574 824 1,290 8.8
Jul-Sep 2021 2,573 17.7 1,350 9.3 547 803 1,224 8.4
Oct-Dec 2021 2,586 17.8 1,301 9.0 537 764 1,286 8.9
Months
November 2020 2,964 21.0 1,680 11.9 779 901 1,284 9.1
December 2020 3,081 21.4 1,724 12.0 797 927 1,357 9.4
January 2021 3,118 21.7 1,680 11.7 692 988 1,438 10.0
February 2021 3,068 21.0 1,930 13.2 790 1,140 1,138 7.8
March 2021 2,728 19.0 1,639 11.4 668 971 1,089 7.6
April 2021 2,664 18.3 1,307 9.0 593 714 1,357 9.3
May 2021 2,749 18.9 1,493 10.3 558 935 1,256 8.6
June 2021 2,651 17.9 1,394 9.4 570 824 1,257 8.5
July 2021 2,756 18.8 1,422 9.7 619 803 1,334 9.1
August 2021 2,537 17.7 1,362 9.5 492 870 1,175 8.2
September 2021 2,428 16.7 1,265 8.7 530 735 1,163 8.0
October 2021 2,547 17.8 1,320 9.2 471 849 1,227 8.6
November 2021 2,536 17.5 1,330 9.2 583 748 1,206 8.3
December 2021 2,676 18.2 1,252 8.5 557 695 1,424 9.7

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 784,153 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2021 and includes 6,031 telephone and online interviews in September 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employedunemployedunder-employedemployed part-timeemployed full-timeretiredstudying and many more.

For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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