Since the Federal election we have seen much discussion and negotiation between the leaders of both major parties and the Independents – to see who could form a Coalition or combined Government.

Today we look at this from the point of view of the electorate(s).

It is easy to forget that each of the Independent participants is there at the negotiating table – not as an individual but as the voice of their constituency – the people who elected them. So what matters in the 4 country seats of Kennedy (QLD), New England and Lyne (NSW) and O’Connor (WA)? And what matters to electors in Melbourne and Denison (Hobart)?

At a very fundamental level, electors in the 4 country areas are older, more likely to be retired, less affluent and more socially conservative than the Australian population as a whole – and are diametrically opposed to most of the socially progressive values and attitudes of electors in Melbourne and policies of the Greens.

If we were looking for the Greens and Independents to form a ‘happy’ Coalition, that’s not going to happen, but what about a Coalition of the Independents with Julia Gillard Labor (and the Greens) or Tony Abbot Liberal and National Parties.

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Consumer Confidence has fallen slightly to 123.3 (down 1.3pts) since the Federal election, according to the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted on the weekend after the Federal election (August 28/29, 2010). Weekly Consumer Confidence is now 1.4pts higher than a year ago, August 29/30, 2009 (121.9).

The small fall in confidence has been driven by a decrease in confidence about Australian economic conditions over the next 12 months and also the next 5 years.

In terms of the economy as a whole in the long-term, 40% (down 6%) of Australians expect Australia to have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years compared to 12% (up 2%) that expect ‘bad times’ economically.

A decreasing number of Australians, 36% (down 2%) say that Australia as a whole will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months compared to 18% (up 2%) that say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially in the next 12 months.

Of Australians 52% (down 3%) say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 16% (down 1%) that say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

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The report shows that in three of the seven psychographic segments, CP and DLP voters are closer to the ALP than to the Liberal Party.

On the other hand, the Australia Party voter is closer to the Liberal Party than to the ALP in two of the seven psychographic segments, namely "Upward Mobility" and "Socio-Economic Status."

This point is most important when directing future policies. It is also important when considering the Liberal Parties attitudes toward the CP and DLP.

The ALP voter and the Liberal voters are opposite on all seven segments.

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The June 2010 Roy Morgan New Zealand Banking Customer Satisfaction Survey reveals positive shifts in the overall satisfaction levels for most banks. TSB retains it’s position as having the highest satisfaction levels, despite recent declines.

In June 2010, satisfaction reported by customers of the five major banks increased year-on-year by 0.9% points to 77.6%. The biggest improver was the National Bank which rose 2.4% points followed by ASB (up 2.2 % points). Amongst the five major banks, the highest satisfaction scores were achieved by ASB Bank (82.1%), followed by National Bank (81.6%), and BNZ (76.6%).

TSB and Kiwibank remain above the five major banks in terms of customer satisfaction, both improving their position over the previous year. Despite falls in recent months, TSB retained its position as the bank with the highest satisfaction level, at 89.4%, while Kiwibank had 85.5% satisfaction. Kiwibank’s satisfaction levels have grown in recent months, edging closer to TSB.

New Zealand Bank Customer Satisfaction





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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week asked electors “who would make the Better Prime Minister – Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?” Caretaker Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%) was favoured over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%) by 8% - however, this is the narrowest margin in favour of Ms. Gillard since she became Prime Minister on June 24, 2010.

Respondents who said Julia Gillard would make the ‘Better Prime Minister’ mentioned that she is ‘honest and nice,’ ‘more trustworthy,’ ‘has better values,’ ‘is articulate and has more personality’ and ‘She’s had experience as Deputy Prime Minister,’ ‘because of her stance on education,’ and also that ‘Abbott is not quite ready to be Prime Minister,’ and that ‘Labor is not bad and I don’t trust Abbott.’

Those respondents who said Tony Abbott would make the ‘Better Prime Minister’ mentioned that ‘Abbott has better policies,’ ‘The Liberals are better economic managers,’ ‘Liberals are more fiscally responsible,’ ‘has more common sense ideas about how to run the country,’ and also because of the shortcomings of the ALP – ‘don’t like what the ALP did to Kevin Rudd,’ ‘Gillard is more of a puppet,’ ‘I can’t bear Gillard. She is a fool,’ and that Tony Abbott ‘would be a stronger leader.’

Full article.

Over the past decade, the proportion of Australians who have paid for alternative health services has increased from 7.2% to 9.5% and the trend is rising. This represents an increase of 583,000 people, from an estimated 1,110,000 in the year to March 2001 to 1,693,000 in the year to March 2010.

Proportion Paying for Alternative Health Services

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Prime Minister Julia Gillard (44%, down 4%) is still preferred as Prime Minister over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 1%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 26/27, 2010).

Despite more electors preferring Gillard as Prime Minister, more approve of the way Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is handling his job than Julia Gillard. Now 53%, (up 1% since the telephone Morgan Poll of August 3, 2010) approve of Abbott’s handling of his job while 49% (up 3%) approve of the way Julia Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister.

The jump in Abbott’s approval rating is driven by a strong increase in women’s approval of the Opposition Leader (54%, up 5%) and a lower disapproval rate amongst women (35%, down 5%). A majority of men (52%, down 2%) approve of Abbott’s handling of the job compared to 41% (up 4%) that disapprove.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s job approval is up 3% to 49% from August 3, 2010. Gillard’s approval by women is (50%, up 4%) and by men (48%, up 3%). Overall, both more women (50%) and men (48%) approve of Gillard than disapprove – women (34%, down 4%); men (40%, down 1%).

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• Prime Minister Julia Gillard is still the preferred ALP Leader over former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd although the lead is narrowing. Gillard is preferred as ALP Leader by 35% (down 17% since July 20/21, 2010) of electors ahead of Rudd (25%, up 4%). Other candidates are well behind with Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (5%, down 2%), Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith (9%, up 3%) and Bill Shorten (5%, up 2%) and Jenny Macklin (4%, up 3%).

• Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (32%, up 3%) is once again preferred as Liberal Party Leader ahead of current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (23%, down 1%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (21%, down 3%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (6%, down 2%), Christopher Pyne (3%, up 1%) and Andrew Robb (2%, unchanged).

• Amongst Liberal Party voters Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (43%, down 1%) is clearly preferred to Malcolm Turnbull (25%, up 5%) and Joe Hockey (19%, down 3%). Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (5%, down 1%).

• If Prime Minister Julia Gillard were to resign for any reason, former PM Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (35%, down 2%). Stephen Smith (14%, up 3%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, from Wayne Swan (13%, down 7%) and Bill Shorten (9%, up 2%).

• If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (38%, up 2%) and Joe Hockey (31%, down 2%) are clearly ahead of current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (7%, down 5%).

Full article.